Large-scale evaluation of the effects of adaptation to climate change by shifting transplanting date on rice production and quality in Japan
Large-scale evaluation of the effects of adaptation to climate change by shifting transplanting date on rice production and quality in Japan
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DOI：
10.2480/agrmet.d-16-00024
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发表时间：
2017-10-01
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
Kondo, Motohiko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ishigooka, Yasushi;Fukui, Shin;Kondo, Motohiko
我们评估了由于气候变化而导致的预计气温升高对水稻产量和品质的影响，以及作为适应措施的插秧日期的有效性。作为稻米品质的指标，我们采用了热胁迫指数HD_m26，它与由于高温导致的一级米下降的百分比有关，计算为抽穗期后20天内的累积温度。我们使用了一个基于过程的水稻生长模型来评估效果。我们在1981年至2100年期间实施了该模型，并将移栽日期从标准移栽日期的-70天改为+70天，间隔7天。根据HD_ m26值，将估计产量分为3类，具有不同程度的质量退化风险。相对于当前的移栽日期，在大多数气候变化情景下，全国总产量估计略有增加，尽管质量退化风险的产量比例可能会随着温度的升高而增加。通过综合考虑产量和质量选择最佳移栽期，可以在保持总产量的同时避免这种增加的风险。然而，在一些地区发现产量大幅下降，这表明随着温度的升高，日本目前的水稻产区将分为适宜和不适宜的地区。
We evaluated the effect of projected increasing temperatures due to climate change on the yield and quality of rice, as well as the effectiveness of shifting the transplanting date as an adaptation measure, throughout Japan. As an indicator of rice quality, we adopted the heat stress index HD_m26, which is related to the decreased percentage of first grade rice due to high temperature, calculated as the cumulative temperature within 20 days after the heading date. We used a process-based rice growth model to assess the effect. We implemented the model for the period 1981-2100, and shifted the transplanting dates at 7-day intervals from -70 to +70 days from the standard transplanting date. The estimated yield was categorized into three classes with different degrees of quality degradation risk according to values of HD_ m26. Relative to the current transplanting date, nationwide total production was estimated to increase slightly in most climate change scenarios, although the proportion of production with quality degradation risk may increase with the rise in temperature. It may be possible to avoid this increased risk while maintaining total production by selecting an optimum transplanting date in consideration of both yield and quality. However, a large decrease in yield was found in some areas, suggesting that the current rice producing regions in Japan would become separated into suitable and unsuitable areas as temperatures increase.