Predicting rainfall statistics in England and Wales using atmospheric circulation variables
Predicting rainfall statistics in England and Wales using atmospheric circulation variables
复制标题
使用大气环流变量预测英格兰和威尔士的降雨统计数据
DOI：
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发表时间：
1998
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
P. Jones
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Kilsby;P. Cowpertwait;P. O'Connell;P. Jones
回归模型用于预测点降雨统计数据，具有潜在的应用于未来气候的降尺度一般环流模式（GCM）输出。该模型可用于预测英格兰和威尔士任何地点每个日历月的平均日降雨量和干旱天数比例，并使用以下解释变量：(i)地理（海拔高度、地理坐标和与最近海岸的距离）；（ii）大气环流变量（由平均海平面压力网格导出的气流指数的平均值）。这些模式预测的覆盖整个英格兰和威尔士的10公里方格网的数值与Barrow et al.（1993）的1961-1990年气候学基本一致。讨论了模型在水文气候变化影响研究中的潜在应用。
Regression models are developed to predict point rainfall statistics, with potential application to downscaling general circulation model (GCM) output for future climates. The models can be used to predict the mean daily rainfall amount and the proportion of dry days for each calendar month at any site in England and Wales, and use the following explanatory variables: (i) geographical (altitude, geographic coordinates, and distance from nearest coast); and (ii) atmospheric circulation variables (mean values of air-flow indices derived from mean sea-level pressure grids). Values predicted by the models, for 10-km grid squares covering the whole of England and Wales, are in reasonable agreement with the 1961-1990 climatology of Barrow et al. (1993). The potential use of the models in hydrological climate change impact studies is discussed.