Klimat. Russia in the Age of Climate Change Thane Gustafson, Cambridge, MA & London: Harvard University Press, 2021, ix + 312pp., £31.95/$39.95 h/b.
Klimat. Russia in the Age of Climate Change Thane Gustafson, Cambridge, MA & London: Harvard University Press, 2021, ix + 312pp., £31.95/$39.95 h/b.
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克里马特。
DOI：
10.1080/09668136.2023.2224172
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
Galdini F
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Galdini F
在《KLIMAT》中，鉴于全球经济即将向清洁能源转型，资深能源和俄罗斯观察家塔恩·古斯塔夫森 (Thane Gustafson) 着手分析“俄罗斯的领土及其政治制度、经济和社会将如何受到气候变化的影响”（第 3 页）。作者认为，俄罗斯境外制定的脱碳等气候政策将对俄罗斯化石燃料出口收入产生巨大影响，而其他部门无法弥补硬通货收入的损失。尽管变化将从 2020 年代的“缓慢过渡”（在此期间“当前的碳氢化合物模式”仍“可行”）转变为未来几十年的“快速过渡”，这将破坏该模式，但最终结果将是政府收入急剧下降（第 209-10 页）。第一章重点讨论“对于大多数俄罗斯参与者来说，外贸仍然是比气候变化更强大的推动因素”（第 43 页），因为他们继续重视化石燃料的持续出口而不是气候行动。与此同时，除了北极地区的当地居民外，那里气候变化的后果已经变得非常明显，“公众舆论仍然不相信更大的气候变化故事”（第20页），因此动员围绕的是当地有关污染的问题（例如垃圾清除），而不是气候。本书的其余部分探讨了全球能源转型对俄罗斯石油、天然气和煤炭行业的影响，这些行业目前占出口收入的 60%（第 2-4、8 章），以及可再生能源和核电等碳氢化合物的替代能源问题，包括它们与其他出口产品（粮食作物、金属）一起为国库赚取硬通货的潜力（第 5-7、9 章）。出现的景象是黯淡的。随着西西伯利亚廉价石油中心地带的产量下降，那里和新的北极近海油田的开采成本将越来越高，部分原因是俄罗斯几乎完全依赖外国技术（第二章）。与此同时，进口国的气候政策将影响石油出口，因此俄罗斯将“面临国内产量下降和成本上升的威胁，以及石油需求下降和石油需求下降的前景”。
IN KLIMAT, VETERAN ENERGY AND RUSSIA WATCHER THANE Gustafson sets out to analyse how ‘Russia’s territory—as well as its political system, its economy, and its society—[will] be affected by climate change’(p. 3), in view of the coming transition to cleaner forms of energy in the global economy. The author argues that climate policies such as decarbonisation enacted outside Russia will have a huge impact on the country’s income from fossil fuel exports, while no other sector will be in a position to compensate for this loss in hard currency earnings. Although change will progress from a ‘slow transition’in the 2020s during which ‘the present hydrocarbon model’will remain ‘viable’, to a ‘fast transition’in the following decades that will undermine this model, the net result will be a steep decline in government revenue (pp. 209–10). Chapter 1 focuses on how,‘for most of the Russian players, foreign trade remains a more powerful motivator than climate change’(p. 43), as they continue valuing the ongoing export of fossil fuels over climate action. In parallel, with the exception of the local populations in the Arctic where the consequences of a changing climate have become painfully obvious,‘public opinion remains unconvinced by the larger climate-change story’(p. 20), so mobilisation revolves around local issues concerning pollution (such as rubbish removal) rather than the climate. The rest of the book explores the effects of the global energy transition for Russia’s oil, gas and coal sectors, which today account for 60% of export revenue (Chapters 2–4, 8), as well as the question of energy alternatives to hydrocarbons such as renewables and nuclear power, including their potential, along with other exports (food crops, metals), to earn hard currency for state coffers (Chapters 5–7, 9). The picture that emerges is bleak. As production in the West Siberian cheap oil heartland declines, extraction will increasingly become more expensive there and in the new Arctic offshore fields, partly because of Russia’s near-total dependence on foreign technology (Chapter 2). In parallel, climate policies in importing countries will impinge on oil exports, so that Russia will be ‘squeezed between the threat of lower production and higher costs at home, and the prospect of lower oil demand and