Job insecurity and the difficulty of regaining employment: An empirical study of unemployment expectations
Job insecurity and the difficulty of regaining employment: An empirical study of unemployment expectations
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DOI：
10.1111/1468-0084.0620s1855
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发表时间：
2000-12-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Burchell, B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Green, F;Felstead, A;Burchell, B
人们普遍认为，英国工人在过去十年中变得更加不安全。本文旨在确定流行的假设是否正确。我们研究的变化，工人的不安全感的措施，使用直接措施，他们的失业预期，收集的数据由社会变革和经济生活倡议（SCELI）在1986年和技能调查（SS）在1997年。本文还探讨了如何密切相关的主观措施的不安全感的客观措施通常用作代理，并分析了这些期望是如何确定的。研究发现：i.总体而言，以预期失业风险衡量的工作不安全状况变化不大，而在过去十年中，预期重新就业的难度有所下降。非体力劳动者的工作不安全感有所增加，而非体力劳动者的工作不安全感有所下降，因为他们本来就比较没有安全感。外部劳动力市场的失业对个人的失业预期及其再就业预期有很大影响。临时工作和不安全感之间有很强的正相关。因此，如果劳动力中临时工的比例上升，就有可能出现主观不安全感上升的问题。v.工作期限和工作不安全感呈U型关系。vi. 1986年至1997年失业率的下降本来预计会导致工作不稳定性的大幅下降，但这一下降没有实现，这表明工作不稳定性出现了上升趋势。
It is widely assumed that British workers have become more insecure over the last decade. This paper sets out to establish whether the popular assumption is correct. We examine changes in measures of workers' insecurity using direct measures of their unemployment expectations, using data colleted by the Social Change and Economic Life Initiative (SCELI) in 1986 and by the Skills Survey (SS) in 1997. The paper also investigates how closely subjective measures of insecurity are related to objective measures commonly used as proxies, and analyses how these expectations are determined. It finds that:i. In aggregate job insecurity, measured as the expected risk of job loss, has changed little, while the expected difficulty of regaining employment has fallen over the last decade.ii. Job insecurity has increased among non-manual workers, while it has fallen among non-manual workers, who were traditionally less secure in the first place.iii. Unemployment in the external labour market has a large impact on individuals' expectations of unemployment and on their expectations of re-employment.vi. There is a strong positive association between a job being temporary and insecurity. It is valid, therefore, to see a possible problem of rising subjective insecurity if there is a rising proportion of temporary workers in the labour force.v. Job tenure and job insecurity follow a U-shaped relationship.vi. The fall in unemployment from 1986 to 1997 would have been predicted to induce a substantial fall in job insecurity, that this fall did not materialise suggests that there has been an upward shift in job insecurity.