Global temperature change
Global temperature change
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0606291103
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发表时间：
2006-09-26
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Medina-Elizade, Martin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hansen, James;Sato, Makiko;Medina-Elizade, Martin
过去 30 年中，全球表面温度每十年增加约 0.2 摄氏度，与 19805 年初始全球气候模型模拟中短暂的温室气体变化预测的变暖速度相似。在过去的一个世纪中，西赤道太平洋的变暖程度比东赤道太平洋更大，我们认为，东西向温度梯度的增加可能增加了发生强厄尔尼诺现象的可能性，例如1983年和1998年的厄尔尼诺现象。将西太平洋测量的海面温度与古气候数据进行比较表明，这个关键海洋区域，可能还有整个地球，现在的温度大约与全新世最高温度时一样温暖，并且与全新世最高温度时的温度相差约1摄氏度。过去百万年的最高温度。我们得出的结论是，从对海平面和物种灭绝可能产生的影响来看，相对于 2000 年，全球变暖超过约 1 摄氏度将构成“危险”的气候变化。
Global surface temperature has increased approximate to 0.2 degrees C per decade in the past 30 years, similar to the warming rate predicted in the 19805 in initial global climate model simulations with transient greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century, and we suggest that the increased West-East temperature gradient may have increased the likelihood of strong El Ninos, such as those of 1983 and 1998. Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole, is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within approximate to 1 degrees C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. We conclude that global warming of more than approximate to 1 degrees C, relative to 2000, will constitute "dangerous" climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species.