FORECASTING ENROLLMENTS WITH FUZZY TIME-SERIES .1.
FORECASTING ENROLLMENTS WITH FUZZY TIME-SERIES .1.
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DOI：
10.1016/0165-0114(93)90355-l
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发表时间：
1993-02-25
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
CHISSOM, BS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
SONG, Q;CHISSOM, BS
文献中有很多预测大学入学率的方法。然而，当历史数据是语言值时，它们都无法应用。模糊时间序列是处理此类问题的有效工具。本文作为模糊时间序列在教育研究中的应用，对阿拉巴马大学的招生情况进行了预测。在此过程中，使用历史数据开发了模糊时间序列模型。提出了一个完整的过程，其中包括：模糊历史数据，开发模糊时间序列模型，以及计算和解释输出。为了评估预测模型，测试了模糊时间序列模型的鲁棒性。还讨论了预测方法的优点和问题。
There have been a good many methods to forecast university enrollments in the literature. However, none of them could be applied when the historical data are linguistic values. Fuzzy time series is an effective tool to deal with such problems. In this paper, as an application of fuzzy time series in educational research, the forecast of the enrollments of the University of Alabama is carried out. In so doing, a fuzzy time series model is developed using historical data. A complete procedure is proposed which includes: fuzzifying the historical data, developing a fuzzy time series model, and calculating and interpreting the outputs. To evaluate the forecasting model, the robustness of the fuzzy time series model is tested. Advantages and problems of the forecasting method are also discussed.