The interval between successive cases of an infectious disease
The interval between successive cases of an infectious disease
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DOI：
10.1093/aje/kwg251
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发表时间：
2003-12-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Fine, PEM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fine, PEM
传染病的连续病例之间的间隔是由从感染到传染性的时间、传染性的持续时间、从感染到疾病发作的时间（潜伏期）、传染因子的任何非人类阶段的持续时间以及受感染个体中临床受影响的比例决定的。这一时间间隔对于解释传染病监测和趋势数据、识别疫情以及优化检疫和接触者追踪都很重要。本文讨论了这些时间间隔的性质，作为传输事件之间或连续感染个体的临床发作之间的测量，注意到其范围和频率分布的决定因素，在何种情况下，继发病例可能出现在原发病之前，以及在何种情况下，感染传输间隔将不同于连续病例的临床发作之间的间隔。它讨论了从标准教科书中给出的描述性数据中推导出区间分布统计量，并从已发表的关于疫情、家庭和流行病学追踪的数据中进行了说明。最后，它讨论了这些措施的影响，研究的二次攻击率，在人类社区的感染的持续性，疫情的反应，消除或根除计划。
The interval between successive cases of an infectious disease is determined by the time from infection to infectiousness, the duration of infectiousness, the time from infection to disease onset (incubation period), the duration of any extra-human phase of the infectious agent, and the proportion clinically affected among infected individuals. The interval is important in the interpretation of infectious disease surveillance and trend data, in the identification of outbreaks, and in the optimization of quarantine and contact tracing. This paper discusses the properties of these intervals, as measured between transmission events or between clinical onsets of successive infected individuals, noting the determinants of their ranges and frequency distributions, the circumstances under which secondary cases may arise before primaries, and under which the infection transmission interval will be different from the interval between clinical onsets of successive cases. It discusses the derivation of interval distribution statistics from descriptive data given in standard textbooks, with illustrations from published data on outbreaks, households, and epidemiologic tracing. Finally, it discusses the implications of such measures for studies of secondary attack rates, for the persistence of infection in human communities, for outbreak response, and for elimination or eradication programs.