The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies, wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall over ocean and land
The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies, wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall over ocean and land
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DOI：
10.1088/2515-7620/acb31c
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发表时间：
2023-02
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Samantha Hallam;G. McCarthy;Xiangbo Feng;S. Josey;E. Harris;A. Düsterhus;Stephen Ogungbenro;J. Hirschi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Samantha Hallam;G. McCarthy;Xiangbo Feng;S. Josey;E. Harris;A. Düsterhus;Stephen Ogungbenro;J. Hirschi
近年来，与美国登陆的飓风有关的淡水洪水造成的损失越来越大。本文分析了1998-2017年北大西洋热带气旋降水与海温距平、风速和平动速度的关系。根据我们对观测资料的统计分析，当主要发展区域（MDR）海温升高1°C时，大西洋上空的TCP速率（mmhr−1）增加6%（无统计学意义），在陆地（美国各州）上升到40%以上，似乎不仅与Clausius-Clapeyron关系有关，而且与与海温升高相关的热带气旋（TC）强度增加有关。MDR的年总TCP与海温显著相关。MDR海温每升高1°C，大西洋上空的总TCP增加116%，陆地上空的总TCP增加140%。同样，这与风速和TC路径数量的增加有关，这些路径也随着MDR的正ssta而增加。我们对美国九个州的登陆TC轨迹的分析提供了一个系统的回顾，并强调了TCP在美国各州的变化。每年登陆次数最多的是佛罗里达州、北卡罗来纳州和德克萨斯州。热带气旋平动速度中值为20.3kmhr−1，但在陆地上降至16.5 kmhr−1，且平动速度与纬度有关。总体而言，我们发现对海洋和陆地上海温上升的TCP响应是不同的，陆地上的响应是克劳修斯-克拉佩龙速率的四倍多。MDR中的SSTA与TCP速率和年总TCP之间的联系为利用tc进行季节到十年的美国洪水预测提供了有用的见解。
There have been increasing losses from freshwater flooding associated with United States (US) landfalling hurricanes in recent years. This study analyses the relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) for the period 1998-2017. Based on our statistical analysis of observation data, for a 1 °C SST increase in the main development region (MDR), there is a 6% increase (not statistically significant) in the TCP rate (mmhr−1) over the Atlantic, which rises to over 40% over land (US states) and appears linked not only to the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship but also to the increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity associated with increasing SSTA. Total annual TCP is significantly correlated with the SST in the MDR. Over the Atlantic there is an increase of 116% and over land there is an increase of 140% in total TCP for a 1 °C rise in SST in the MDR. Again, this is linked to the increase in windspeed and the number of TC tracks which also rises with positive SSTAs in the MDR. Our analysis of landfalling TC tracks for nine US states provides a systematic review and highlights how TCP varies by US state. The highest number of landfalls per year are found in Florida, North Carolina and Texas. The median tropical cyclone translation speed is 20.3kmhr−1, although this falls to 16.5 kmhr−1 over land and there is a latitudinal dependence on translation speed. Overall, we find a different TCP response to rising SST over the ocean and land, with the response over land over four times more than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate. The links between SSTA in the MDR and both TCP rate and annual total TCP provide useful insights for seasonal to decadal US flood prediction from TCs.