Why Britain Voted for Brexit: An Individual-Level Analysis of the 2016 Referendum Vote
Why Britain Voted for Brexit: An Individual-Level Analysis of the 2016 Referendum Vote
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DOI：
10.1093/pa/gsx005
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发表时间：
2017-07-01
影响因子：
1.2
通讯作者：
Whiteley, Paul
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Clarke, Harold D.;Goodwin, Matthew;Whiteley, Paul
本文调查了在2016年6月23日英国是否继续留在欧盟的公投中，选民做出决定的力量。本文采用了一个多变量模型来评估影响选民在欧盟公投中投票的因素，该模型是基于之前关于重大“政治塑造”公投投票的研究得出的。利用在公投前后进行的全国小组调查中收集的数据，分析表明，以经济和移民为重点的效益-成本评估对选民的决定产生了强烈影响。风险评估、对欧盟成员国身份的情绪反应和领导人形象启发是推动选民做出选择的其他主要直接因素。国家认同也有影响，但在影响对欧盟态度的一系列力量中起着更深远的作用。因此，6月23日的英国脱欧决定反映了计算、情绪和暗示的多种混合。考虑到投票的势均力敌，这些因素中的任何一个发生重大变化都可能改变公投结果，这似乎是合理的。
This article investigates forces that shaped the decisions voters made in the 23 June 2016 referendum on the UK's continued membership in the European Union. A multivariate model informed by previous research on voting in major "polity-shaping' referendums is employed assess factors affecting how voters cast their ballots in the EU referendum. Employing data gathered in a national panel survey conducted before and after the referendum, analyses document that economic- and immigration-focused benefit-cost evaluations strongly influenced voters' decisions. Risk assessments, emotional reactions to EU membership and leader image heuristics were other major proximate forces driving the choices voters made. National identities were influential as well, but operated further back in the set of forces affecting attitudes towards the EU. The June 23rd Brexit decision thus reflected a diverse mix of calculations, emotions and cues. Given the close division of the vote, it is plausible that a substantial change in any of these factors could have changed the referendum outcome.