Statistical Prediction of Integrated Kinetic Energy in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Statistical Prediction of Integrated Kinetic Energy in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
复制标题
北大西洋热带气旋综合动能统计预测
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
V. Misra
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Michael E. Kozar;V. Misra
摘要综合动能（IKE）是一个用来度量热带气旋风场大小和强度的有用量。因此，它与这些强大风暴的破坏潜力有着内在的联系。在目前的大部分操作环境中，用于评估热带气旋IKE的资源有限，因为风暴路径和最大强度通常是优先考虑的。因此，为了补充现有的预报工具，创建了一个统计方案，以预测北大西洋热带气旋中IKE在72小时内的几个预报间隔的波动。由此产生的方案，名为综合动能统计预测（SPIKE），利用多变量正态回归模型，对1990年至2011年发生的所有北大西洋热带气旋的环境和风暴相关预报进行训练。在此训练间隔，SPIKE优于持久性，并能够解释超过80%的观测方差在总IKE值在forec…
AbstractIntegrated kinetic energy (IKE) is a useful quantity that measures the size and strength of a tropical cyclone wind field. As a result, it is inherently related to the destructive potential of these powerful storms. In most current operational settings, there are limited resources designed to assess the IKE of a tropical cyclone because storm track and maximum intensity are typically prioritized. Therefore, to complement existing forecasting tools, a statistical scheme is created to project fluctuations of IKE in North Atlantic tropical cyclones for several forecast intervals out to 72 h. The resulting scheme, named Statistical Prediction of Integrated Kinetic Energy (SPIKE), utilizes multivariate normal regression models trained on environmental and storm-related predictors from all North Atlantic tropical cyclones occurring from 1990 to 2011. During this training interval, SPIKE outperforms persistence and is capable of explaining more than 80% of observed variance in total IKE values at a forec...