Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing
Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing
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DOI：
10.1002/2013gl059099
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发表时间：
2014-04
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
M. Rigby;R. Prinn;S. O'Doherty;B. Miller;D. Ivy;Jens Mühle;C. Harth;P. Salameh;T. Arnold
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Rigby;R. Prinn;S. O'Doherty;B. Miller;D. Ivy;Jens Mühle;C. Harth;P. Salameh;T. Arnold
大气测量表明，氢氟碳化合物和氟氯烃的排放现在是合成温室气体辐射强迫正增长的主要驱动力。我们推断最近的SGHG排放量，并研究未来排放情景的影响，特别关注根据《蒙特利尔议定书》减少HFC使用的建议。如果这些建议得到实施，尽管全氟化温室气体排放量持续增长，但总体SGHG辐射强迫可能在2020年达到约355 mW m-2的峰值，然后到2050年下降约26%。与“无氢氟碳化合物政策”的预测相比，这相当于到2050年减少50至240 mW m-2的辐射强迫，或相当于在目前水平下0.5至2.8年CO2排放量的累积减排量。然而，需要更完整地报告全球氢氟碳化合物的排放量，因为目前氢氟碳化合物的排放量不到全球排放量的一半。
Atmospheric measurements show that emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons are now the primary drivers of the positive growth in synthetic greenhouse gas (SGHG) radiative forcing. We infer recent SGHG emissions and examine the impact of future emissions scenarios, with a particular focus on proposals to reduce HFC use under the Montreal Protocol. If these proposals are implemented, overall SGHG radiative forcing could peak at around 355 mW m−2 in 2020, before declining by approximately 26% by 2050, despite continued growth of fully fluorinated greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to “no HFC policy” projections, this amounts to a reduction in radiative forcing of between 50 and 240 mW m−2 by 2050 or a cumulative emissions saving equivalent to 0.5 to 2.8 years of CO2 emissions at current levels. However, more complete reporting of global HFC emissions is required, as less than half of global emissions are currently accounted for.