Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe
Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01482.x
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发表时间：
2006-10-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Pearson, R. G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Araujo, M. B.;Thuiller, W.;Pearson, R. G.
目的：我们探索目前欧洲两栖爬行动物物种分布与观测气候之间的关系，并预测未来物种的潜在分布。通过量化每个物种模拟分布变化的幅度和方向来评估气候变暖的潜在影响。我们特别要问的是，第一，预计两栖动物和爬行动物物种在未来失去和获得合适的气候空间的比例是多少？第二，物种预测是否因分类、空间或环境特性而异？第三，在适宜物种生存的环境中，什么样的气候因素可能会推动对物种损失或收益的预测？位置Europe.Methods分布的物种建模与四个物种-气候包络技术（人工神经网络，广义线性模型，广义加法模型，分类树分析）和分布预测到未来使用五个气候变化情景为2050年。未来的预测考虑两个极端的假设：物种有无限的扩散能力和物种没有扩散能力。一种新的混合方法相结合的合奏预测，然后使用分组线性协变预测到集群减少模型间的variability.Results我们表明，很大一部分的两栖动物和爬行动物物种预计扩大分布，如果扩散是无限的。这是因为在较冷的北方物种范围内的变暖为殖民创造了新的机会。如果物种无法扩散，那么大多数物种预计将失去活动范围。物种适宜气候空间的丧失预计将主要发生在欧洲西南部，包括伊比利亚半岛，而东南部的物种预计将获得适宜的气候。这是因为西南部的干燥条件预计将增加，接近在北非，很少有两栖动物物种能够坚持的水平。主要结论温度升高对两栖动物和爬行动物物种的影响可能是有害的比以前假设的，事实上，气候变冷将是更有害的两栖动物和爬行动物物种的持久性比变暖。然而，物种科普气候变暖的能力可能会被预计的水资源减少所抵消。这对两栖动物来说尤其如此。有限的扩散能力可能进一步增加两栖动物和爬行动物对气候变化的脆弱性。
Aim We explore the relationship between current European distributions of amphibian and reptile species and observed climate, and project species potential distributions into the future. Potential impacts of climate warming are assessed by quantifying the magnitude and direction of modelled distributional shifts for every species. In particular we ask, first, what proportion of amphibian and reptile species are projected to lose and gain suitable climate space in the future? Secondly, do species projections vary according to taxonomic, spatial or environmental properties? And thirdly, what climate factors might be driving projections of loss or gain in suitable environments for species?Location Europe.Methods Distributions of species are modelled with four species -climate envelope techniques (artificial neural networks, generalized linear models, generalized additive models, and classification tree analyses) and distributions are projected into the future using five climate-change scenarios for 2050. Future projections are made considering two extreme assumptions: species have unlimited dispersal ability and species have no dispersal ability. A novel hybrid approach for combining ensembles of forecasts is then used to group linearly covarying projections into clusters with reduced inter-model variability.Results We show that a great proportion of amphibian and reptile species are projected to expand distributions if dispersal is unlimited. This is because warming in the cooler northern ranges of species creates new opportunities for colonization. If species are unable to disperse, then most species are projected to lose range. Loss of suitable climate space for species is projected to occur mainly in the south-west of Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula, whilst species in the south-east are projected to gain suitable climate. This is because dry conditions in the south-west are projected to increase, approaching the levels found in North Africa, where few amphibian species are able to persist.Main conclusions The impact of increasing temperatures on amphibian and reptile species may be less deleterious than previously postulated; indeed, climate cooling would be more deleterious for the persistence of amphibian and reptile species than warming. The ability of species to cope with climate warming may, however, be offset by projected decreases in the availability of water. This should be particularly true for amphibians. Limited dispersal ability may further increase the vulnerability of amphibians and reptiles to changes in climate.