Epidemiologic determinants for modeling pneumonic plague outbreaks
Epidemiologic determinants for modeling pneumonic plague outbreaks
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DOI：
10.3201/eid1004.030509
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发表时间：
2004-04-01
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Leach, S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gani, R;Leach, S
肺瘟疫在鼠疫非流行地区的人类风险可能增加，这是由于释放释放或通过疾病的进口而导致的。肺鼠疫是可以传播的人。我们基于过去的暴发提供了对透气性的定量评估，该爆发表明，假设在爆发控制措施之前的几何概率分布，每个主要病例的平均二次病例数为1.3（方差= 3.1）。我们还表明，可以使用均值（SD）（SD）为4.3（1.8）和2.5（1.2）天，可以近似潜在和感染周期。基于此参数估计，我们构建了一个马尔可夫链流行病模型，以证明延迟在实施爆发控制措施中的潜在影响以及索引案件数量增加对模拟暴发中病例的发生率。
Pneumonic plague poses a potentially increasing risk to humans in plague nonendemic regions either as a consequence of an aerosolized release or through importation of the disease. Pneumonic plague is person-to-person transmissible. We provide a quantitative assessment of transmissibility based on past outbreaks that shows that the average number of secondary cases per primary case (R-0) was 1.3 (variance = 3.1), assuming a geometric probability distribution, prior to outbreak control measures. We also show that the latent and infectious periods can be approximated by using lognormal distributions with means (SD) of 4.3 (1.8) and 2.5 (1.2) days. Based on this parameter estimation, we construct a Markov-chain epidemic model to demonstrate the potential impact of delays in implementing outbreak control measures and increasing numbers of index cases on the incidence of cases in simulated outbreaks.