Mapping vessel traffic patterns in the ice-covered waters of the Pacific Arctic
Mapping vessel traffic patterns in the ice-covered waters of the Pacific Arctic
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-023-03568-3
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发表时间：
2023-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Liu，Jianguo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kapsar，Kelly;Gunn，Grant;Liu，Jianguo
最近的气候变化导致冰层覆盖减少，延长了北极开放水域的季节，增加了获取资源和航运路线的机会。这些变化导致季节性冰雪覆盖地区的船只活动增加。虽然在无冰季节交通量有所增加，但在边缘冰区（冰浓度15-80%）或在浮冰区（冰浓度50 - 80%）的船只活动量仍不清楚。考虑到日益增加的安全挑战和环境影响，了解船舶在冰上的活动模式非常重要。在这里，我们将高分辨率船舶跟踪信息与海冰厚度和浓度数据相结合，以量化太平洋北极冰盖地区（白令海北部、楚科奇海和波弗特海西部）的船舶活动。该地区是地缘战略上的关键地区，拥有全球重要的商业渔业，是野生动物和船只进入北极的走廊。我们发现，边缘冰区的船舶交通广泛分布在整个研究区域，而浮冰区的船舶交通则集中在已知航线和自然资源开发区域。在船舶交通量与海冰浓度和厚度之间的统计显著关系中，超过99%为负关系，表明在月时间尺度上，海冰增加与船舶交通量减少相关。此外，在弓头鲸（Balaena mysticetus）高度集中的地区有大量的船只交通，在研究期间，这些地区的交通增加了四倍。在低冰浓度地区，渔船主导着船只交通，但在浮冰地区，被归类为其他类型的船只（可能是破冰船）是最常见的船只类型。这些发现表明，冰覆盖地区的船舶交通受到遥远的政策和资源开发决策的影响，在试图预测气候变化中未来船舶与冰的相互作用时，应将这些决策考虑在内。
Recent climate change has caused declines in ice coverage which have lengthened the open water season in the Arctic and increased access to resources and shipping routes. These changes have resulted in more vessel activity in seasonally ice-covered regions. While traffic is increasing in the ice-free season, the amount of vessel activity in the marginal ice zone (ice concentration 15–80%) or in pack ice (>80% concentration) remains unclear. Understanding patterns of vessel activities in ice is important given increased safety challenges and environmental impacts. Here, we couple high-resolution ship tracking information with sea ice thickness and concentration data to quantify vessel activity in ice-covered areas of the Pacific Arctic (northern Bering, Chukchi, and western Beaufort Seas). This region is a geo-strategically critical area that contains globally important commercial fisheries and serves as a corridor for Arctic access for wildlife and vessels. We find that vessel traffic in the marginal ice zone is widely distributed across the study area while vessel traffic in pack ice is concentrated along known shipping routes and in areas of natural resource development. Of the statistically significant relationships between vessel traffic and both sea ice concentration and thickness, over 99% are negative, indicating that increasing sea ice is associated with decreasing vessel traffic on a monthly time scale. Furthermore, there is substantial vessel traffic in areas of high concentration for bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus), and traffic in these areas increased four-fold during the study period. Fishing vessels dominate vessel traffic at low ice concentrations, but vessels categorized as Other, likely icebreakers, are the most common vessel type in pack ice. These findings indicate that vessel traffic in areas of ice coverage is influenced by distant policy and resource development decisions which should be taken into consideration when trying to predict future vessel-ice interactions in a changing climate.