Tree ring-based annual streamflow reconstruction for the Heihe River in arid northwestern China from ad 575 and its implications for water resource management
Tree ring-based annual streamflow reconstruction for the Heihe River in arid northwestern China from ad 575 and its implications for water resource management
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DOI：
10.1177/0959683611430411
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发表时间：
2012-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Bao Yang;C. Qin;Feng Shi;D. Sonechkin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bao Yang;C. Qin;Feng Shi;D. Sonechkin
我们利用大量树木年轮样本（217 个样本/92 棵树）以及基于区域曲线标准化 (RCS) 和标准树木年代学 (STD) 方法的准确信息，为中国干旱的西北内陆黑河流域开发了两种树木年轮宽度年表（祁连杜松、Sabina przewalskii Kom.）。提出了黑河上游地区两次 1422 年年度（8 月至 7 月）径流量的重建。 STD和RCS重建分别占1958-2006年期间实际径流方差的53.4%和57.2%。尽管基于 RCS 的重建在保留低频趋势方面优于基于 STD 的重建，但两种重建都显示出相当大的低频（数十年到数百年）波动。公元 818–852、1112–1196、1453–1495 和 1680–1710 年为低水期，公元 868–1000、1056–1094、1228–1271、1327–1440、1510–1583 年和两次重建中都检测到了 1877 年至 2006 年。 STD和RCS重建都证明了在过去1500年的背景下，20世纪黑河上游地区的洪水条件加剧了。预计径流重建将有助于中国西北干旱黑河流域的水资源规划和管理。
We developed two tree ring-width chronologies (Qilian juniper, Sabina przewalskii Kom.) for the inland Heihe River Basin in arid northwest China using a large number of tree-ring samples (217 samples/92 trees) with accurate information about pith offsets based on Regional Curve Standardization (RCS) and standard dendrochronological (STD) methodologies. Two 1422-year reconstructions of annual (August–July) streamflow for the upstream region of the Heihe River are presented. The STD and RCS reconstructions account for 53.4% and 57.2% of the actual streamflow variance during the period 1958–2006, respectively. Both reconstructions display considerable low frequency (multidecadal to multicentury) fluctuations, although the RCS based reconstruction is superior to the STD based reconstruction for retention of low-frequency trends. Low-flow years in ad 818–852, 1112–1196, 1453–1495 and 1680–1710, and high-flow periods in ad 868–1000, 1056–1094, 1228–1271, 1327–1440, 1510–1583 and 1877–2006 are detected in both reconstructions. Both the STD and the RCS reconstructions testify to the fact that the 20th century witnessed intensified pluvial conditions in the upstream region of the Heihe River in the context of the last 1500 years. The streamflow reconstructions are anticipated to be useful to water resource planning and management for the Heihe River Basin in arid northwestern China.