Energy security versus food security: An analysis of fuel ethanol- related markets using the spillover index and partial wavelet coherence approaches
Energy security versus food security: An analysis of fuel ethanol- related markets using the spillover index and partial wavelet coherence approaches
复制标题
能源安全与粮食安全：使用溢出指数和部分小波相干方法分析燃料乙醇相关市场
DOI：
10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106142
复制
发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
12.8
通讯作者：
Tanaka Tetsuji
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guo Jin;Tanaka Tetsuji
最近生物燃料生产的激增引起了对能源和粮食安全的关切。大多数与“燃料与粮食”问题有关的文献都密切关注期货市场，在期货市场中，商品价格的波动性因许多非商业性交易者而大大增加，这些交易者对零售、批发和农场市场等金融市场和非金融市场之间的价格波动差异负有责任。本分析以燃料乙醇、汽油和玉米的批发价格和生产者价格为重点，分析了2001年1月至2020年12月这三种商品市场之间的相互关系。我们应用了溢出指数和部分小波相干方法，这在这一研究领域很少使用，并得到了很大程度上一致的结果。本文的主要研究结果如下：第一，汽油和乙醇的价格收益率在短期内与玉米价格收益率呈正相关。第二，汽油价格收益与玉米价格收益在中长期内正相关，而乙醇价格收益与玉米价格收益在中期内负相关。最后，有证据表明，汽油的价格回报率正导致所有频域的价格回报率。研究结果表明，虽然美国的生物燃料政策提高了国家的能源独立性，但该战略对国家粮食安全的获取、稳定和可用性产生了不利影响。美国《能源政策法》和《能源独立与安全法》的废除将带来双重红利：提高资源配置效率和改善粮食安全。
The recent surge in biofuel production has caused concern about energy and food security. Most of the literature related to the “fuel vs. food” issue has paid close attention to futures markets, in which commodity price volatilities are greatly increased by the many non-commercial traders that are responsible for differences in price movements between financial and non-financial markets, such as retail, wholesale, and farm-gate markets. This analysis focused on the wholesale and producer prices of fuel ethanol, gasoline, and corn to analyze the interrelations among the three commodity markets from January 2001 to December 2020. We applied the spillover index and partial wavelet coherence methods, which have rarely been used in this research area, and obtained results that were largely consistent. Our primary findings are as follows: First, gasoline and ethanol price returns tend to be positively correlated with the corn price return in the short term. Second, the price return of gasoline is positively related to the corn price return in the medium and long terms, while the price return of ethanol is negatively related to the corn price return in the medium term. Finally, there is evidence that the price returns of gasoline positively lead the price return in all the frequency domains. The results suggest that while biofuel policy in the US enhances the country's energy independence, the strategy adversely affects the access, stability, and availability of the country's food security. The repeal of the US Energy Policy Act and Energy Independence and Security Act would bring about a double dividend: higher efficiency of resource allocation and improved food security.