Limits to Economic Growth and the Effect of Redistribution in Mexico
Limits to Economic Growth and the Effect of Redistribution in Mexico
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发表时间：
2015
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通讯作者：
Alberto J. Iniguez-Montiel;T. Kurosaki
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作者：
Alberto J. Iniguez-Montiel;T. Kurosaki
在这项研究中，我们使用重复的横截面家庭数据，检验了1992年至2012年期间墨西哥增长和再分配在减少贫困方面的有效性。我们首先将观察到的减贫变化分解为增长、收入分配改善和异质通货膨胀产生的组成部分。我们发现通货膨胀的组成部分是不可忽略的，因为穷人所经历的通货膨胀高于全国平均水平。分解还显示，收入分配的改善是墨西哥减少贫困的主要因素。在我们分析的第二部分，我们从家庭数据中编译了一个独特的州一级面板数据集，并估计了一个表征增长、不平等和贫困之间动态关系的方程系统，同时小心避免了数据构建产生的虚假相关性。GMM回归结果表明，墨西哥各州具有收入趋同和不平等趋同的特征，墨西哥各州的减贫对前一时期的收入和不平等水平负有高度责任。这意味着，一旦一个国家出现了减少不平等程度的小扰动，这个国家预计将在随后的时期内持续减少贫困，这与分解的结果是一致的。☆Iniguez-Montiel（通讯作者）：筑波大学系统与信息工程研究生院。电子邮件：iniguez@sk.tsukuba.ac.jp & iniguez.montiel@gmail.com。黑崎：一桥大学经济研究所。电子邮件:kurosaki@ier.hit-u.ac.jp。
In this study, we examine the effectiveness of growth and redistribution in reducing poverty in Mexico during the period from 1992 to 2012, using repeated cross-section household data. We first decompose the observed changes in poverty reduction into components arising from growth, improved income distribution, and heterogeneous inflation. We find the component of inflation to be non-negligible, as the inflation experienced by the poor was higher than the national average. The decomposition also shows improvement in income distribution to be the main contributor to poverty reduction in Mexico. In the second part of our analysis, we compile a unique panel dataset at the state level from the household data and estimate a system of equations that characterize the dynamic relationship between growth, inequality, and poverty, being careful to avoid spurious correlation arising from data construction. The GMM regression results show that Mexican states are characterized by income convergence and inequality convergence, and that poverty reduction in Mexican states is highly responsible to income and inequality levels in the previous period. This implies that once a small perturbation occurs in a state that reduces the inequality level, the state is expected to experience sustained poverty reduction in subsequent periods, which is consistent with the findings from the decomposition. ☆ Iniguez-Montiel (Corresponding author): Graduate School of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Tsukuba. Email: iniguez@sk.tsukuba.ac.jp & iniguez.montiel@gmail.com. Kurosaki: The Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. Email: kurosaki@ier.hit-u.ac.jp.