Joint probability analysis of extreme wave heights and surges along China's coasts
Joint probability analysis of extreme wave heights and surges along China's coasts
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DOI：
10.1016/j.oceaneng.2018.12.010
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发表时间：
2019-04
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Yongping Chen;Jiang‐Long Li;S. Pan;Min Gan;Yi Pan;Dongmei Xie;S. Clee
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yongping Chen;Jiang‐Long Li;S. Pan;Min Gan;Yi Pan;Dongmei Xie;S. Clee
利用35年来长期模式模拟的结果，分析了中国沿海9个有代表性的站点的极值波高和涌浪的联合概率。详细讨论了为极端分析提供数据集的三种抽样方法。结果表明，结构响应(SR)采样法在描述极值波高与涌浪之间的相关性方面表现出最好的性能，特别是在台风影响区。计算并给出了这9个站点的联合超越概率和联合概率密度分布。联合概率分析的结果表明，极值波高与研究区域的涌浪有一定的相关性，当海态能量越强时，两者的相关性越强。由联合概率密度法和经验法得到的给定重现期的波高和涌浪组合水位的比较表明，在确定联合极值水位时，通常采用的经验方法估计过高，这可能会降低海岸结构物设计的经济性。
The joint probability of extreme wave height and surge at 9 representatively selected stations along China's coasts are analysed using the results extracted from long-term model simulations over a period of 35 years. Three sampling methods which are used to provide the datasets for extreme analysis are detailed and discussed. It is found that the structural response (SR) sampling method shows the best performance in describing the correlations between extreme wave heights and surges, particularly in the typhoon-affected areas, in comparison with both wave dominated (WD) and surge dominated (SD) sampling methods. The distribution of joint exceedance probability and joint probability density for these 9 selected stations are calculated and presented. The results from the joint probability analysis show that the extreme wave height and surge in the study region are partly related, and their correlation becomes stronger where the sea states become more energetic. The comparisons of the combined water level of the wave height and surge at given return periods obtained from the joint probability density and the empirical method indicate an overestimation from the commonly used empirical method in determining the joint extreme water level, which could make coastal structure designs less economic.