Redefining the Australian Anthrax Belt: Modeling the Ecological Niche and Predicting the Geographic Distribution of Bacillus anthracis.
Redefining the Australian Anthrax Belt: Modeling the Ecological Niche and Predicting the Geographic Distribution of Bacillus anthracis.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0004689
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发表时间：
2016-06
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Blackburn JK
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barro AS;Fegan M;Moloney B;Porter K;Muller J;Warner S;Blackburn JK
本文报道了B的生态和分布。澳大利亚的炭疽病并不十分清楚，尽管该国东部各州继续发生炭疽病疫情。估计疾病风险的空间范围的努力仅限于定性定义从昆士兰州东南部通过新南威尔士州中心延伸到北方维多利亚的炭疽带。这种炭疽带的定义没有考虑环境条件在B分布中的作用。炭疽病在这里，我们使用遗传算法的规则集预测模型系统（GARP），历史炭疽疫情和环境数据的生态位模型的B。炭疽菌，并预测其在澳大利亚的潜在地理分布。我们的模型揭示了B的利基市场。澳大利亚炭疽病的特点是集中在两个分离的走廊中的狭窄的生态条件范围。最主要的走廊，用来重新定义一个新的炭疽地带，平行于东部高地，从北维多利亚到中东部昆士兰州，穿过新南威尔士州的中心。这项研究重新定义了澳大利亚东部的炭疽带，并提供了有关限制B分布的生态因素的见解。澳大利亚大陆范围内的炭疽病。确定的地理分布可以帮助公共和兽医卫生机构制定炭疽监测战略。本研究探讨了澳大利亚炭疽病的病原体炭疽芽孢杆菌的空间生态学。在全球范围内，炭疽是一种被忽视的人畜共患疾病，主要影响食草动物，偶尔也影响人类和所有温血动物。在这里，我们使用1996-2013年期间的历史炭疽疫情和生态位建模框架中的环境因素来定量定义B的生态位。用遗传算法来检测炭疽菌这被投射到澳大利亚的大陆景观，以预测病原体的地理分布。B的生态位。炭疽病的特征在于生态条件范围狭窄，其在地理上集中在两个分离的走廊中：平行于东部高地的主要走廊从北维多利亚通过新南威尔士的中心延伸到中东部昆士兰州，而另一个走廊预计在西澳大利亚的西南部。这些发现提供了对B潜在地理分布的估计。炭疽病，并可以帮助告知澳大利亚各地的炭疽病监测。
The ecology and distribution of B. anthracis in Australia is not well understood, despite the continued occurrence of anthrax outbreaks in the eastern states of the country. Efforts to estimate the spatial extent of the risk of disease have been limited to a qualitative definition of an anthrax belt extending from southeast Queensland through the centre of New South Wales and into northern Victoria. This definition of the anthrax belt does not consider the role of environmental conditions in the distribution of B. anthracis. Here, we used the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction model system (GARP), historical anthrax outbreaks and environmental data to model the ecological niche of B. anthracis and predict its potential geographic distribution in Australia. Our models reveal the niche of B. anthracis in Australia is characterized by a narrow range of ecological conditions concentrated in two disjunct corridors. The most dominant corridor, used to redefine a new anthrax belt, parallels the Eastern Highlands and runs from north Victoria to central east Queensland through the centre of New South Wales. This study has redefined the anthrax belt in eastern Australia and provides insights about the ecological factors that limit the distribution of B. anthracis at the continental scale for Australia. The geographic distributions identified can help inform anthrax surveillance strategies by public and veterinary health agencies. This study explores the spatial ecology of Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax disease, in Australia. Globally, anthrax is a neglected zoonotic disease that primarily affect herbivores and incidentally humans and all warm-blooded animals. Here, we used historic anthrax outbreaks for the period 1996–2013 and environmental factors in an ecological niche modelling framework to quantitatively define the ecological niche of B. anthracis using a genetic algorithm. This was projected onto the continental landscape of Australia to predict the geographic distribution of the pathogen. The ecological niche of B. anthracis is characterized by a narrow range of ecological conditions, which are geographically concentrated in two disjunct corridors: a dominant corridor paralleling the Eastern Highlands runs from north Victoria to central east Queensland through the centre of New South Wales, while another corridor was predicted in the southwest of Western Australia. These findings provide an estimate of the potential geographic distribution of B. anthracis, and can help inform anthrax disease surveillance across Australia.