Volcanic Hazards Risk Assessment
Volcanic Hazards Risk Assessment
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DOI：
10.1007/978-3-642-80087-0_20
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发表时间：
1996
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
R. Blong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Blong
本章审查了与评估人类、建筑物、生命线和其他基础设施的脆弱性和风险有关的各种火山灾害的物理特性。当排除与火山爆发间接有关的死亡人数时，火山爆发造成的死亡人数记录主要是由火山碎屑流、火山泥流或海啸造成的少数灾难性事件，这些事件造成了大量死亡，通过制定一系列情景，充分考虑火山爆发的规模、危险混合物以及人员和基础设施的脆弱性，可以很容易地进行风险评估。由于并非所有的灾害都是火山的特征，因此有必要估计特定地区、火山和喷发的复发概率。巴布亚新几内亚火山的相对风险指数--基于灾害频率、受影响面积和潜在的建筑物损害--表明火山灰坠落的主要重要性，影响建筑物和内容物的损害机制差异很大，但很明显，充分的风险评估需要比目前可获得的关于火山爆发后果的信息更好的信息。对生命线的脆弱性或次生危害的后果所知更少。在设想和风险评估中，必须更加注意最大可能爆发的潜在后果。
This chapter reviews the physical characteristics of a wide range of volcanic hazards pertinent to assessments of vulnerability and risk with respect to humans, buildings, lifelines, and other infrastructure. When deaths related indirectly to eruptions are excluded, the record of fatalities from eruptions is dominated by a few catastrophic events that produced numerous deaths as a result of pyroclastic flows, lahars, or tsunamis.Risk assessment can be readily carried out through the development of a series of scenarios in which eruption magnitudes, hazard mixtures, and the vulnerabilities of personnel and infrastructure are adequately considered. Because not all hazards are characteristic of volcanoes, it is necessary to estimate probabilities of recurrence for specific regions, volcanoes, and eruptions. A relative risk index produced for Papua New Guinea volcanies — based on hazard frequency, area affected, and potential building damage — indicates the dominant importance of tephra fall.Damage mechanisms affecting buildings and contents vary widely, but it is clear that adequate risk assessment requires much better information than is currently available on the consequences of eruptions. Even less is known about the vulnerabilities of lifelines or the consequences of secondary hazards. Increased attention must be paid to the potential consequences of maximum possible eruptions in scenario development and risk assessment.