Fractional (Co)integration and Governing Party Support in Britain
Fractional (Co)integration and Governing Party Support in Britain
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英国的部分（共）一体化和执政党支持
DOI：
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发表时间：
2003
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Matthew J. Lebo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Clarke;Matthew J. Lebo
在分析历史悠久的进程方面的最新发展为分析政治学家感兴趣的时间序列变量提供了重要的杠杆作用。本文提供了一个访问这些方法的论述，并说明了他们的效用，解决长期的争议，在英国的政党支持的政治经济学。分数差分参数的估计，d，揭示了执政党的支持，总理批准和经济评价是长期记忆和非平稳的，执政党的支持和总理批准分数协整。传统观点认为，党的领导人形象问题不大，如果有的话，多元分数误差修正模型的分析表明，总理的批准对党的支持有重要的短期和长期影响。前瞻性和回顾性的个人经济评估是有影响力的，但与长期以来的说法相反，国家经济评估并不重要。文章最后指出，个人层面的异质性是一个可能的来源，观察到的总水平分数整合执政党的支持及其决定因素。包含理论上有意义的异质性的非简约模型是未来研究的一个具有挑战性的课题。
Recent developments in the analysis of long-memoried processes provide important leverage for analysing time-series variables of interest to political scientists. This article provides an accessible exposition of these methods and illustrates their utility for addressing protracted controversies regarding the political economy of party support in Britain. Estimates of the fractionally differencing parameter, d, reveal that governing party support, prime ministerial approval and economic evaluations are long-memoried and non-stationary, and that governing party support and prime ministerial approval are fractionally cointegrated. Pace conventional wisdom that party leader images matter little, if at all, analyses of multivariate fractional error correction models show that prime ministerial approval has important short-run and long-run effects on party support. Prospective and retrospective personal economic evaluations are influential but, contrary to a longstanding claim, national economic evaluations are not significant. The article concludes by suggesting that individual-level heterogeneity is a likely source of the observed aggregate-level fractional integration in governing party support and its determinants. Specifying parsimonious models that incorporate theoretically meaningful heterogeneity is a challenging topic for future research.