High-resolution inventory of ammonia emissions from agricultural fertilizer in China from 1978 to 2008
High-resolution inventory of ammonia emissions from agricultural fertilizer in China from 1978 to 2008
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-16-1207-2016
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发表时间：
2015-12
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Peng Xu;Y. Liao;Yun Lin;C. X. Zhao;Chao Yan;M. Cao;G. S. Wang;S. Luan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Peng Xu;Y. Liao;Yun Lin;C. X. Zhao;Chao Yan;M. Cao;G. S. Wang;S. Luan
抽象的。氨(NH3)排放量的量化对于更准确地量化大气氮沉积、改善空气质量以及评估与氨有关的农业政策和气候缓解战略至关重要。这些排放的数量、地理分布和历史趋势在很大程度上仍然不确定。本文编制了新的中国农业化肥NH3(CAF_NH3)排放清单，该清单具有以下改进：(1)编制了2008年县级1×1公里网格图；(2)采用自下而上和自上而下相结合的方法对排放因子和参数进行了局部校正；(3)估计了1978-2008年历史时间趋势的时间模式，并量化了清单的不确定性；(4)进行了敏感性试验，将省级分类图与2008年的CAF_NH3排放量进行了比较。2008年CaF_NH3的总排放量为8.4TgNH3yr−1(四分位数范围为6.6-9.8TgNH3)。从1978年到2008年，年NH3排放量呈三个峰值波动(1987、1996和2005年)，总排放量以3.0%的年增长率从3.2 Tg增加到8.4Tg。在研究期间，畜禽粪便传播的贡献从37.0%增加到45.5%，原因是施肥方式的改变以及鸡蛋、牛奶和肉类消费的快速增长。对作物产量有积极影响的合成肥的平均贡献率约为38.3%(最小值：33.4%；最大值：42.7%)。由于快速城市化导致农村人口减少，农村排泄物部门的贡献差异很大，在20.3%到8.5%之间。饼肥和秸秆还田的平均贡献率分别为3.8%和4.5%，较小且稳定。总体而言，CaF_NH3排放量在一定程度上反映了国家的农业政策。降低中国PM2.5浓度的有效途径是同时减少NOx、SO2和NH3的排放。
Abstract. The quantification of ammonia (NH3) emissions is essential to the more accurate quantification of atmospheric nitrogen deposition, improved air quality and the assessment of ammonia-related agricultural policy and climate mitigation strategies. The quantity, geographic distribution and historical trends of these emissions remain largely uncertain. In this paper, a new Chinese agricultural fertilizer NH3 (CAF_NH3) emissions inventory has been compiled that exhibits the following improvements: (1) a 1 × 1 km gridded map on the county level was developed for 2008; (2) a combined bottom-up and top-down method was used for the local correction of emission factors (EFs) and parameters; (3) the temporal patterns of historical time trends for 1978–2008 were estimated and the uncertainties were quantified for the inventories; and (4) a sensitivity test was performed in which a province-level disaggregated map was compared with CAF_NH3 emissions for 2008. The total CAF_NH3 emissions for 2008 were 8.4 TgNH3 yr−1 (a 6.6–9.8 Tg interquartile range). From 1978 to 2008, annual NH3 emissions fluctuated with three peaks (1987, 1996 and 2005), and total emissions increased from 3.2 to 8.4 Tg at an annual rate of 3.0 %. During the study period, the contribution of livestock manure spreading increased from 37.0 to 45.5 % because of changing fertilization practices and the rapid increase in egg, milk, and meat consumption. The average contribution of synthetic fertilizer, which has a positive effect on crop yields, was approximately 38.3 % (minimum: 33.4 %; maximum: 42.7 %). With rapid urbanization causing a decline in the rural population, the contribution of the rural excrement sector varied widely between 20.3 % and 8.5 %. The average contributions of cake fertilizer and straw returning were approximately 3.8 and 4.5 %, respectively, thus small and stable. Collectively, the CAF_NH3 emissions reflect the nation's agricultural policy to a certain extent. An effective approach to decreasing PM2.5 concentrations in China would be to simultaneously decrease NOx, SO2, and NH3 emissions.