Is there any evidence that syphilis epidemics cycle?
Is there any evidence that syphilis epidemics cycle?
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DOI：
10.1016/s1473-3099(08)70203-2
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发表时间：
2008-09-01
影响因子：
56.3
通讯作者：
Blower, Sally
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Breban, Romulus;Supervie, Virginie;Blower, Sally
我们重新审视梅毒流行周期这一有争议的假设背后的证据。我们使用该假设的支持者使用的相同方法（谱分析）来重新分析由美国疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）提供的纵向数据集。我们还分析了CDC的纵向死亡率数据集。为了研究用于支持该假设的传播模型产生的理论结果，我们模拟了该模型并预测了梅毒流行的预期动态。与之前的研究结果相比，我们发现CDC的数据集都没有提供令人信服的证据表明梅毒流行周期，并且传播模型（如果使用更合理的参数值）不能预测循环行为。我们解释了先前提出的梅毒流行周期的可能原因。我们的研究结果表明，疾病预防控制中心很有可能在未来几十年内成功消除梅毒。
We re-examine the evidence behind the controversial hypothesis that syphilis epidemics cycle. We used the same methods (spectral analysis) used by the proponents of this hypothesis to reanalyse a longitudinal dataset provided by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). We also analysed a longitudinal CDC mortality dataset. To investigate the theoretical results generated by the transmission model that was used to support the hypothesis, we simulated the model and predicted the expected dynamics of syphilis epidemics. By contrast with previous findings, we found that neither of the CDC's datasets provides compelling evidence that syphilis epidemics cycle, and the transmission model (if more reasonable parameter values are used) does not predict cycling behaviour. We explain the possible reasons for the previous proposal that syphilis epidemics cycle. Our findings imply that it is quite possible that the CDC could be successful in eliminating syphilis within the next few decades.