Model Prediksi Kebutuhan Air Bersih Berdasarkan Jumlah Penduduk di Kawasan Perkotaan Sentul City
Model Prediksi Kebutuhan Air Bersih Berdasarkan Jumlah Penduduk di Kawasan Perkotaan Sentul City
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模型 Prediksi Kebutuhan Air Bersih Berdasarkan Jumlah Penduduk di Kawasan Perkotaan Sentul City
DOI：
10.29244/jsil.4.3.207-218
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Yudi Setiawan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Asep Suheri;C. Kusmana;M. Y. Purwanto;Yudi Setiawan
这项研究旨在创建一个模型来预测冼都市城区当前和未来 30 年（三十年）的清洁水需求。要创建模型，需要可用于预测每年的居民人数的数据。人口预测有一些常用的模型，包括算术法、指数法和最小二乘法。本研究中的居民数量预测采用了水利总局2001年《流域水资源指南》中推荐的指数法。研究者使用Stella 9.0.1软件来简化建模过程、预测居民数量、预测清洁水需求并绘制图形。除了这个软件之外，还使用了Excel程序。根据数据分析结果，预测冼都市需水量（立方米/年）的方程模型如下：对于农村地区居民：YDn = 1 927 309 (1 + 0.0303)n；对于城市地区居民：YKn = 1 808 940 + 217 248*n； 对于总居民：YSCn = YDn + YKn。 关键词：居民数、几何方法、清洁水需求预测
This research aims to create a model for predicting clean water need in the urban area Sentul City currently and next 30 (thirty years). To create the model, it is required data which are useful for forecasting the inhabitant number year to year. There are some general-used models for forecasting the inhabitant number, including to arithmatic, exponential, and least square method. The inhabitant number forecast in this research used an exponential method, as recommended in the Guidance of River Area Water Resource by Directorate General of Water Resource in 2001. The researcher used the software Stella 9.0.1 for simplifying the modeling process, projecting the inhabitant number, predicting the clean water need, and figuring the graphics. Besides this software, Excel programme was also used. According to data analysis result, the equation models to predict water need (m3/year) in Sentul City are stated as follows; for rural area inhabitants: YDn = 1 927 309 (1 + 0.0303)n; for urban area inhabitants: YKn = 1 808 940 + 217 248*n; and for total inhabitants: YSCn = YDn + YKn.Keywords: inhabitant number, geomeric method, clean water need prediction