Analyzing Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk for Complex Product Systems R&D Projects
Analyzing Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk for Complex Product Systems R&D Projects
复制标题
分析复杂产品系统的综合成本计划风险 R
DOI：
10.1155/2014/472640
复制
发表时间：
2014-01-01
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Li, Hongbo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xu, Zhe;Yu, Jing;Li, Hongbo
绝大多数项目风险管理的研究工作倾向于独立评估成本风险和进度风险。然而，项目成本和时间在现实中是相关的，它们之间的关系应该直接分析。针对复杂产品系统研发项目，提出了一种集成成本和进度风险评估模型。利用图形评审技术（GERT）、蒙特卡罗模拟和概率分布理论建立了模型。此外，统计分析和回归分析技术被用来分析模拟输出。最后，以一个复杂产品系统研发项目为例，对该方法进行了建模，并对仿真结果进行了分析，验证了该风险评估模型的有效性。看来，整合成本和进度风险评估可以提供更可靠的风险估计结果。
The vast majority of the research efforts in project risk management tend to assess cost risk and schedule risk independently. However, project cost and time are related in reality and the relationship between them should be analyzed directly. We propose an integrated cost and schedule risk assessment model for complex product systems R&D projects. Graphical evaluation review technique (GERT), Monte Carlo simulation, and probability distribution theory are utilized to establish the model. In addition, statistical analysis and regression analysis techniques are employed to analyze simulation outputs. Finally, a complex product systems R&D project as an example is modeled by the proposed approach and the simulation outputs are analyzed to illustrate the effectiveness of the risk assessment model. It seems that integrating cost and schedule risk assessment can provide more reliable risk estimation results.