Directional influences on global temperature prediction
Directional influences on global temperature prediction
复制标题
DOI：
10.1029/2012gl052149
复制
发表时间：
2012-07
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Geli Wang;Peicai Yang;Xiuji Zhou;K. Swanson;A. Tsonis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Geli Wang;Peicai Yang;Xiuji Zhou;K. Swanson;A. Tsonis
越来越多的证据表明，主要气候模态参与决定全球平均温度的十年变率。这些模态代表了主要的海洋和大气信号，在年代际尺度上，它们的集体相互作用导致气候变化，表现为全球温度趋势的制度变化。在这里，我们调查这些模式的集体作用是否在一个政权，即更短的时间尺度内扩展。我们应用非线性预测，以评估气候系统中的方向性影响。我们发现证据表明，输入的四个主要气候模式从大西洋和太平洋改善全球温度的预测，因此这些模式的格兰杰导致全球温度。此外，我们发现这种因果关系不是一个特定的模式占主导地位的结果，而是四个模式的网络中的非线性集体行为的结果。
There is growing evidence that major climate modes are involved in determining decadal variability in global mean temperature. These modes represent major oceanic and atmospheric signals and on decadal scales their collective interplay leads to climate shifts manifesting themselves as regime changes in global temperature trend. Here we investigate whether the collective role of these modes is extended within a regime, i.e. to shorter time scales. We apply nonlinear prediction in order to assess directional influences in the climate system. We show evidence that input from four major climate modes from the Atlantic and Pacific improves the prediction of global temperature and thus these modes Granger cause global temperature. Moreover, we find that this causality is not a result of a particular mode dominating but a result of the nonlinear collective behavior in the network of the four modes.