Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss.
Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y
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发表时间：
2022-02-07
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Walsh A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Smith DM;Eade R;Andrews MB;Ayres H;Clark A;Chripko S;Deser C;Dunstone NJ;García-Serrano J;Gastineau G;Graff LS;Hardiman SC;He B;Hermanson L;Jung T;Knight J;Levine X;Magnusdottir G;Manzini E;Matei D;Mori M;Msadek R;Ortega P;Peings Y;Scaife AA;Screen JA;Seabrook M;Semmler T;Sigmond M;Streffing J;Sun L;Walsh A
北极海冰的减少可能会削弱中纬度西风带，促进更严重的寒冷冬季，这引发了十多年的科学辩论，观察结果明显支持，但没有决定性的模型证据。在这里，我们表明，16个模型有助于极地放大模型相互比较项目模拟中纬度西风减弱，预计北极海冰损失。我们开发了一个紧急约束的基础上涡流反馈，这是1.2至3倍太弱的模型，这表明现实世界的削弱在于对高端的模型模拟。尽管如此，对北极海冰损失的模拟反应仍然很弱：北大西洋涛动的反应在幅度上相似，并抵消了对温室气体增加的预测反应，但仅占个别年份变化的10%左右。我们进一步发现，北极海冰和大气环流之间的关系最近在观测中减弱，不再与模式中的不一致。北极海冰减少对中纬度大气环流的影响程度存在广泛争议。在这里，作者使用了一个协调的多模式实验来表明，北极海冰的损失导致中纬度西风减弱，但总体上影响很小。
The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate a weakening of mid-latitude westerlies in response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 to 3 times too weak in the models, suggesting that the real-world weakening lies towards the higher end of the model simulations. Still, the modelled response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak: the North Atlantic Oscillation response is similar in magnitude and offsets the projected response to increased greenhouse gases, but would only account for around 10% of variations in individual years. We further find that relationships between Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation have weakened recently in observations and are no longer inconsistent with those in models. The degree to which Arctic sea ice decline influences the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation is widely debated. Here, the authors use a coordinated multi-model experiment to show that Arctic sea ice loss causes a weakening of the mid-latitude westerly winds, but the effect is overall small.
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