Racing toward Tragedy?: China's Rise, Military Competition in the Asia Pacific, and the Security Dilemma
Racing toward Tragedy?: China's Rise, Military Competition in the Asia Pacific, and the Security Dilemma
复制标题
走向悲剧？：中国的崛起、亚太军事竞争与安全困境
DOI：
10.1162/isec_a_00176
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
G. Ikenberry
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Adam P. Liff;G. Ikenberry
冷战后，学者们认为亚太地区军事竞争和冲突的时机已经成熟。过去十年的事态发展加深了这些期望。在整个地区，军费开支的增加和各国加强军事能力的努力似乎造成了一种日益动荡的气氛，沿着相互武装和重新武装的潜在恶性循环。在这种背景下，中国经济的快速增长和军费开支的激增正在煽动不稳定的军备竞赛和安全困境的说法很普遍。这样的说法是吸引眼球的头条新闻，但它们很少受到严格的实证检验。亚太地区的军事竞争模式是否实际上可归因于基于安全困境的逻辑，对国际关系理论和外交政策具有重要意义。这个问题的答案直接关系到各国领导人如何最大限度地提高和平与稳定在这一经济和战略上至关重要的地区占上风的可能性。一个系统的实证测试来自有影响力的理论学术安全困境的概念评估的驱动因素的双边和多边摩擦和军事竞争正在亚太地区。安全困境驱动的竞争似乎是一个重要的贡献者，但结果并不是结构性决定的。虽然这种军事竞争在不久的将来可能会大大增加，但有一些可用的措施可以帮助改善或管理其一些最糟糕的方面。
In the post–Cold War period, scholars have considered the Asia Pacific to be ripe for military competition and conflict. Developments over the past decade have deepened these expectations. Across the region, rising military spending and efforts of various states to bolster their military capabilities appear to have created an increasingly volatile climate, along with potentially vicious cycles of mutual arming and rearming. In this context, claims that China's rapid economic growth and surging military spending are fomenting destabilizing arms races and security dilemmas are widespread. Such claims make for catchy headlines, yet they are rarely subject to rigorous empirical tests. Whether patterns of military competition in the Asia Pacific are in fact attributable to a security dilemma–based logic has important implications for international relations theory and foreign policy. The answer has direct consequences for how leaders can maximize the likelihood that peace and stability will prevail in this economically and strategically vital region. A systematic empirical test derived from influential theoretical scholarship on the security dilemma concept assesses the drivers of bilateral and multilateral frictions and military competition under way in the Asia Pacific. Security dilemma–driven competition appears to be an important contributor, yet the outcome is not structurally determined. Although this military competition could grow significantly in the near future, there are a number of available measures that could help to ameliorate or manage some of its worst aspects.