The Evolution of Integrated Assessment: Developing the Next Generation of Use-Inspired Integrated Assessment Tools
The Evolution of Integrated Assessment: Developing the Next Generation of Use-Inspired Integrated Assessment Tools
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DOI：
10.1146/annurev-resource-110119-030314
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Weyant, John
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fisher-Vanden, Karen;Weyant, John
在这篇综述中，我们试图描述自1994年William Nordhaus开创性工作以来综合评估建模研究的演变，突出了一些挑战和建议，以推动该领域的发展。这一领域已从侧重于成本效益分析的全球总体模型发展到用于生成排放情景的详细过程模型和用于影响分析的耦合模型框架。为了进行影响分析，对更高的部门、时间和空间分辨率的需求不断增加，这导致了计算和概念上的一些挑战。克服这些挑战，并推动该领域的发展，不仅需要在模型耦合软件和翻译工具，将实证研究结果纳入综合评估模型和方法间比较方面做出更大的努力，而且还需要通过更好地培训下一代综合评估学者和扩大实践社区来扩大和更好地协调该领域的多学科研究人员。
In this review, we attempt to describe the evolution of integrated assessment modeling research since the pioneering work of William Nordhaus in 1994, highlighting a number of challenges and suggestions for moving the field forward. The field has evolved from global aggregate models focused on cost-benefit analysis to detailed process models used to generate emissions scenarios and to coupled model frameworks for impact analyses. The increased demand for higher sectoral, temporal, and spatial resolution to conduct impact analyses has led to a number of challenges both computationally and conceptually. Overcoming these challenges and moving the field forward will require not only greater efforts in model coupling software and translational tools, the incorporation of empirical findings into integrated assessment models, and intermethod comparisons but also the expansion and better coordination of multidisciplinary researchers in this field through better training of the next generation of integrated assessment scholars and expanding the community of practice.