Modelling age-dependent force of infection from prevalence data using fractional polynomials
Modelling age-dependent force of infection from prevalence data using fractional polynomials
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DOI：
10.1002/sim.2291
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发表时间：
2006-05-15
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Van Damme, P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shkedy, Z;Aerts, M;Van Damme, P
感染力是传染病的主要流行病学参数之一。对于许多传染病，人们假定感染力与年龄有关。尽管可以从一项随访研究中直接估算感染力，但更为常见的是拥有横断面血清阳性率数据，据此可以估算患病率和感染力。在本文中，我们提议在分数多项式的框架内对感染力进行建模。我们讨论了文献中的几个参数示例，并表明所有这些示例都可以表示为分数多项式模型的特殊情况。我们用五个血清阳性率样本说明了该方法，其中两个是甲型肝炎样本，另外三个分别是风疹、腮腺炎和水痘样本。版权所有（c）2005约翰威立父子有限公司。
The force of infection is one of the primary epidemiological parameters of infectious diseases. For many infectious diseases it is assumed that the force of infection is age-dependent. Although the force of infection can be estimated directly from a follow up study, it is much more common to have cross-sectional seroprevalence data from which the prevalence and the force of infection can be estimated. In this paper, we propose to model the force of infection within the framework of fractional polynomials. We discuss several parametric examples from the literature and show that all of these examples can be expressed as special cases of fractional polynomial models. We illustrate the method on five seroprevalence samples, two of Hepatitis A, and one of Rubella, Mumps and Varicella. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.