Climate Sensitivity Runs and Regional Hydrologic Modeling for Predicting the Response of the Greater Florida Everglades Ecosystem to Climate Change
Climate Sensitivity Runs and Regional Hydrologic Modeling for Predicting the Response of the Greater Florida Everglades Ecosystem to Climate Change
复制标题
用于预测大佛罗里达大沼泽地生态系统对气候变化响应的气候敏感性运行和区域水文模型
DOI：
10.1007/s00267-014-0315-x
复制
发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
M. Nungesser
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Obeysekera;J. Barnes;M. Nungesser
了解佛罗里达州南部水管理系统的脆弱性并确定未来气候变化下大沼泽地恢复计划的弹性和稳健性非常重要。当前全球和区域尺度的气候模型尚未准备好为涉及未来计划的水资源调查提供具体的气候数据集，因此，恢复规划的第一项研究采用了基于情景的方法。我们重点关注未来气温潜在变化以及区域边界蒸散量、降水量和海平面相关变化的一般影响。由此，我们开发了一组六种气候和海平面情景，用它们来模拟大沼泽地地区（包括农业、城市和自然区域）的水文响应，并将结果与当前条件下的基础运行结果进行比较。这些情景包括 50 年规划范围内气温上升 1.5°C、降水量变化 ±10% 以及海平面上升 0.46 米（1.5 英尺）。结果表明，根据降雨和温度情况，水预算、生态系统性能和满足的供水需求将会发生重大变化。海平面上升的情景还表明，地下水位将显着上升，对佛罗里达州东南部城市化地区的防洪产生相关影响。
It is important to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida and to determine the resilience and robustness of greater Everglades restoration plans under future climate change. The current climate models, at both global and regional scales, are not ready to deliver specific climatic datasets for water resources investigations involving future plans and therefore a scenario based approach was adopted for this first study in restoration planning. We focused on the general implications of potential changes in future temperature and associated changes in evapotranspiration, precipitation, and sea levels at the regional boundary. From these, we developed a set of six climate and sea level scenarios, used them to simulate the hydrologic response of the greater Everglades region including agricultural, urban, and natural areas, and compared the results to those from a base run of current conditions. The scenarios included a 1.5 °C increase in temperature, ±10 % change in precipitation, and a 0.46 m (1.5 feet) increase in sea level for the 50-year planning horizon. The results suggested that, depending on the rainfall and temperature scenario, there would be significant changes in water budgets, ecosystem performance, and in water supply demands met. The increased sea level scenarios also show that the ground water levels would increase significantly with associated implications for flood protection in the urbanized areas of southeastern Florida.