Climate and socio-economic scenarios for global-scale climate change impacts assessments: characterising the SRES storylines
Climate and socio-economic scenarios for global-scale climate change impacts assessments: characterising the SRES storylines
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.004
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发表时间：
2004-04-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Gaffin, SR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arnell, NW;Livermore, MJL;Gaffin, SR
本文描述了如何将SRES情景中的社会经济预测应用于气候变化对粮食安全、水资源压力、沿海洪水风险和湿地丧失、疟疾风险暴露和陆地生态系统影响的全球范围评估。有两个关键问题：(i)将原始情景的世界区域尺度降至分析尺度（0.5度x 0.5度），以及（ii）详细阐述SRES叙事情节，以量化影响气候变化影响的其他指标。国家人口和国内生产总值的估计是通过假设每个国家都以区域速度变化而得出的，人口规模缩小到0.5度x 0.5度，假设一个国家的所有地方都以相同的速度变化。未来耕地面积的SRES情景应用于当前的基线数据，假设一个区域内的所有地方都以相同的速率变化。叙述故事情节；用于构建未来适应沿海洪水风险和疟疾风险的情景。本文将SRES情景与其他全球尺度情景进行了比较，并确定了不确定性的来源。最后，报告对在全球和区域影响评估中使用SRES情景提出了三个改进建议：(i)使用“缩小的叙事故事线”和新的技术程序，将分解提高到更精细的空间分辨率；（ii）明确考虑每个故事线的人口、GDP和土地覆盖特征的不确定性；（iii）如果影响评估的目的是估计未来可能影响的范围，则使用比SRES提供的更广泛的未来社会经济情景。(C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd.版权所有。
This paper describes the way in which the socio-economic projections in the SRES scenarios were applied in a global-scale assessment of the impacts of climate change on food security, water stresses, coastal flood risk and wetland loss, exposure to malaria risk and terrestrial ecosystems. There are two key issues: (i) downscaling from the world-region level of the original scenarios to the scale of analysis (0.5degrees x 0.5degrees), and (ii) elaborating the SRES narrative storylines to quantify other indicators affecting the impact of climate change. National estimates of population and GDP were derived by assuming that each country changed at the regional rate, and population was downscaled to the 0.5degrees x 0.5degrees scale assuming that everywhere in a country changed at the same rate. SRES scenarios for future cropland extent were applied to current baseline data, assuming everywhere within a region changed at the same rate. The narrative storylines ;were used to construct scenarios of future adaptation to the coastal flood risk and malaria risk. The paper compares the SRES scenarios with other global-scale scenarios, and identifies sources of uncertainty. It concludes by recommending three refinements to the use of the SRES scenarios in global and regional-scale impact assessment: (i) improved disaggregation to finer spatial resolutions, using both "downscaled narrative storylines" and new technical procedures, (ii) explicit consideration of uncertainty in the population, GDP and land cover characterisations of each storyline, and (iii) use of a wider range of future socio-economic scenarios than provided by SRES if the aim of an impact assessment is to estimate the range of possible future impacts. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.