Economic Progress in a Stable Environment
Economic Progress in a Stable Environment
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稳定环境中的经济进步
DOI：
10.2307/2549787
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发表时间：
1947
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
A. C. Pigou
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. C. Pigou
在实际生活中，经济变化的过程是由科学发现所产生的技术发展所主导的，并与劳动年龄人口规模的变化密切相关。在接下来的文章中，我将把这两件事都排除在外。此外，我将假设在银行之外流通的货币存量是固定的，并且政府不会为了调节就业而试图控制投资。最后，我将假设国家不会通过将最高价格定在自由市场的价格之下或将最低价格定在自由市场的价格之上来进行干预。这意味着，在现行价格下，不存在未满足的需求或不需要的供应；换句话说，市场到处都是出清的，或者，如果我们愿意的话，经济体系的所有部分总是处于市场均衡状态——这与我一会儿将称之为彻底均衡的状态截然不同。我提出的主题是这样的。让我们想象一下，我们正处于进行一些投资的最初一年，让我们问一下，在最后一段所规定的条件下，此后会发生什么。最方便的查询分两个科进行；首先，假设人们进行净储蓄——我用这个词来表示净投资——完全是基于他们预期目前能获得的物质回报，因此，如果这些预期回报为零，就不会有净储蓄；其次，基于更现实的假设，即储蓄的部分动机是希望持有资本财富，将其作为声望、个人安全等的来源。在第一个假设中，分析是直截了当的，但在第二个假设中，一些尴尬的谜题可能（不是必须）出现。
IN actual life the process of economic change is dominated by technical developments resulting from scientific discoveries and is closely associated with changes in the size of the population of working age. In what follows I shall rule both these things out of account. I shall assume, moreover, that the stock of money circulating outside the banks is fixed and that the Government does not attempt to control investment with a view to regulating employment. Finally, I shall assume that the State nowhere intervenes by fixing maximum prices below, or minimum prices above, those which would rule in a free market. This implies that at the ruling prices there are no unsatisfied demands or unwanted supplies; in other words that markets are everywhere cleared, or, if we will, that all parts of the economic system are always in market equilibrium-to be sharply distinguished from what I shall call in a moment thorough-going equilibrium. The theme I propose is this. Let us imagine ourselves situated in an initial year in which some investment is taking place, and let us ask what thereafter, subject to the conditions set out in the last paragraph, will happen. The enquiry is most conveniently conducted in two divisions; first on the assumption that people make net savings --I use this term as equivalent to net investment-solely on account of the material returns which they expect them presently to yield, so that, if these expected returns were nil, there would be no net saving; and, secondly, on the more realistic assumption that saving is partly motivated by a desire to hold capital wealth as such as a source of prestige, individual security and so on. On the first assumption the analysis is straightforward, but on the second some awkward puzzles may-not must-present themselves.