Predictability of the Super IOD Event in 2019 and Its Link With El Nino Modoki
Predictability of the Super IOD Event in 2019 and Its Link With El Nino Modoki
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DOI：
10.1029/2019gl086713
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发表时间：
2020-04-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Yamagata, Toshio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Doi, Takeshi;Behera, Swadhin K.;Yamagata, Toshio
2019年的印度洋偶极子（IOD）达到了1994年和1997年发生的最强事件的水平，并在印度洋周边国家造成了灾害。利用基于尺度相互作用实验-前沿气候模式的准实时集合季节预测系统，提前几个季节预测了它的发生，并通过克服所谓的冬季可预测性障碍警告了可能的影响。在较长的提前期内成功预测这样一个超级事件可能有助于通过采取适当的适应措施减少社会经济损失的风险。在这里，我们已经调查了可能的来源，成功的预测，通过分析协变的成员间的异常定义为偏离集合再预报的平均值。有趣的是，发现2019年超级正事件的潜在可预测性与热带太平洋先前存在的厄尔尼诺莫多基有关。
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in 2019 that reached the level of the strongest events occurred in 1994 and 1997 and caused disasters in countries around the Indian Ocean. Using a quasi real-time ensemble seasonal prediction system based on the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier climate model, its occurrence was predicted a few seasons ahead and the possible impacts were warned by overcoming the so-called winter predictability barrier. The successful prediction of such a super event at long lead time may contribute to reducing the risks of socioeconomic losses by introducing suitable measures for adaptation. Here, we have investigated possible sources of the successful prediction by analyzing covariability of intermember anomalies defined as deviations from the mean in the ensemble reforecasts. Interestingly, it is found that the potential predictability of the 2019 super positive event is linked with the preexisting El Nino Modoki in the tropical Pacific.