Simulating regime structures in weather and climate prediction models
Simulating regime structures in weather and climate prediction models
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DOI：
10.1029/2012gl053284
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发表时间：
2012-11-03
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Corti, S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dawson, A.;Palmer, T. N.;Corti, S.
结果表明，具有典型的用于业务数值天气预报的水平分辨率的全球大气模式能够模拟与准持续性欧洲-大西洋天气系统气候学相关的非高斯概率分布。这些模拟状态的空间模式非常准确。相比之下，同样的模式，以更典型的当前气候模式的分辨率进行整合，没有显示出这种非高斯状态结构的统计显著证据，相应集群的空间结构也不准确。因此，虽然研究通常显示大尺度流的气候分布的第一和第二矩随着模式分辨率的增加而逐渐改善，但这里发现了高阶矩的真正阶跃变化。这些结果对高分辨率有限区域模式在低分辨率全球模式的强迫下可靠地模拟区域气候变化信号的能力具有深远的意义。引用本文：Dawson， A.， T. N. Palmer和S. Corti(2012)，模拟天气和气候预测模型中的制度结构，地球物理学。卷。， 39, L21805, doi:10.1029/2012GL053284。
It is shown that a global atmospheric model with horizontal resolution typical of that used in operational numerical weather prediction is able to simulate non-gaussian probability distributions associated with the climatology of quasi-persistent Euro-Atlantic weather regimes. The spatial patterns of these simulated regimes are remarkably accurate. By contrast, the same model, integrated at a resolution more typical of current climate models, shows no statistically significant evidence of such non-gaussian regime structures, and the spatial structure of the corresponding clusters are not accurate. Hence, whilst studies typically show incremental improvements in first and second moments of climatological distributions of the large-scale flow with increasing model resolution, here a real step change in the higher-order moments is found. It is argued that these results have profound implications for the ability of high resolution limited-area models, forced by low resolution global models, to simulate reliably, regional climate change signals. Citation: Dawson, A., T. N. Palmer, and S. Corti (2012), Simulating regime structures in weather and climate prediction models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L21805, doi:10.1029/2012GL053284.