New rail transit stations and the out-migration of low-income residents
New rail transit stations and the out-migration of low-income residents
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DOI：
10.1177/0042098019836631
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发表时间：
2020-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
E. Delmelle;I. Nilsson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Delmelle;I. Nilsson
本文检验了一种假设，即低收入居民不成比例地搬离离新建轨道交通站很近的社区。这种由交通引起的中产阶级化假设是，轨道交通的发展将给土地和住房价值带来上涨压力，高收入居民对这种新便利设施的出价将高于低收入居民。因此，最依赖过境的人口可能会从交通最便利的地点流离失所，这在投资新的交通系统方面形成了一个悖论。我们使用收入动态研究小组(PSID)的数据集来验证这一假设，以追踪1970年至2014年新站点启用后五年内美国各地居民从人口普查区域向外迁移的情况。我们发现，低收入个人更有可能搬家，无论他们的邻居是谁。然而，我们没有发现重要的证据表明，在控制了个人和其他邻里特征之后，低收入个人更有可能搬出过境社区。低收入居民搬离中转社区的几率在统计上微乎其微。换句话说，与其他居民相比，他们离开新的过境社区的可能性并不高。我们的结果在几十年里是强劲的，当只检查租房者时，不同的时间跨度和不同的中转社区定义。我们还发现，那些生活在过境社区的人并不更有可能住在拥挤的住所里。因此，我们的结果表明，在全国范围内，平均而言，低收入居民不会不成比例地离开新的交通社区。
This article tests the hypothesis that low-income residents disproportionately move out of neighbourhoods in close proximity to new rail transit stations. This transit-induced gentrification scenario posits that the development of rail transit will place an upward pressure on land and housing values and that higher-income residents will outbid low-income residents for this new amenity. The most transit-dependent population may therefore be displaced from the most accessible locations, forming a paradox in the investment in new transit systems. We test this hypothesis using the Panel Study on Income Dynamics (PSID) dataset to trace the out-migration of residents across the United States from census tracts within five years of the opening of a new station, between 1970 and 2014. We find that low-income individuals are more likely to move, regardless of their neighbourhood. However, we do not find significant evidence that low-income individuals are more likely to move out of transit neighbourhoods, after controlling for both individual and other neighbourhood characteristics. The odds of moving out of a transit neighbourhood for low-income residents is statistically insignificant. In other words, they do not have a heightened probability of leaving new transit neighbourhoods compared with other residents. Our results are robust across decades, when examining renters alone, for different time spans and for varying definitions of transit neighbourhoods. We further find that those living in transit neighbourhoods are not more likely to live in a crowded dwelling. Our results therefore suggest that, on average, across the nation, low-income residents do not disproportionately exit new transit neighbourhoods.