Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe?
Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe?
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084015
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发表时间：
2015-08-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Young, Paul
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Colette, Augustin;Andersson, Camilla;Young, Paul
臭氧空气污染被确定为影响人类健康和生态系统的主要威胁之一，2005年欧洲有25，000人死于地表臭氧（IIASA 2013 TSAP Report #10）。此外，人们还担心气候变化可能会抵消臭氧污染缓解战略，使其在长期内不足以实现2008年欧洲联盟指令（欧洲议会和理事会2008年5月21日第2008/50/EC号指令）（60 ppbv，每日最高值）所设定的长期目标。这种影响被称为臭氧气候惩罚。评估这种气候惩罚的一种方法是，在保持臭氧前体排放不变的同时，用未来气候预测来驱动化学迁移模型（尽管气候惩罚也可能受到前体排放变化的影响）。在这里，我们通过分析自2007年以来发表的11篇关于这一主题的文章的数据库，即总共25个模型预测，对欧洲气候惩罚在不同时间段和情景下的稳健性进行了分析。由于使用了不同的设想方案、时间段和臭氧指标，因此从未对这一大量文献进行过研究，以评估气候臭氧惩罚的不确定性和稳健性。尽管在这个数据库中的模型设计和设置的变化25模型预测，目前的荟萃分析表明，气候变化对欧洲地面臭氧的影响的重要性和鲁棒性与纬度梯度的惩罚轴承后，欧洲大陆的大部分地区和受益于北大西洋地区的域。未来的气候情景表明，到世纪末（2071-2100年），夏季（JJA）地表臭氧的损失最多为5 ppbv。在欧洲陆地表面，JJA臭氧变化的95%置信区间分别为[0.44; 0.64]和[0.99; 1.50] ppbv的2041-2070和2071-2100的时间窗口。
Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health and ecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAP Report #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollution mitigation strategies, making them insufficient over the long run and jeopardising chances to meet the long term objective set by the European Union Directive of 2008 (Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008) (60 ppbv, daily maximum). This effect has been termed the ozone climate penalty. One way of assessing this climate penalty is by driving chemistry-transport models with future climate projections while holding the ozone precursor emissions constant (although the climate penalty may also be influenced by changes in emission of precursors). Here we present an analysis of the robustness of the climate penalty in Europe across time periods and scenarios by analysing the databases underlying 11 articles published on the topic since 2007, i.e. a total of 25 model projections. This substantial body of literature has never been explored to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the climate ozone penalty because of the use of different scenarios, time periods and ozone metrics. Despite the variability of model design and setup in this database of 25 model projection, the present meta-analysis demonstrates the significance and robustness of the impact of climate change on European surface ozone with a latitudinal gradient from a penalty bearing upon large parts of continental Europe and a benefit over the North Atlantic region of the domain. Future climate scenarios present a penalty for summertime (JJA) surface ozone by the end of the century (2071-2100) of at most 5 ppbv. Over European land surfaces, the 95% confidence interval of JJA ozone change is [0.44; 0.64] and [0.99; 1.50] ppbv for the 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time windows, respectively.