Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of Turkey using an optimized grey model

Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of Turkey using an optimized grey model
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DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2014.03.105
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发表时间：
2014-06-01
期刊：
ENERGY
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Es, Huseyin Avni
Es, Huseyin Avni
中科院分区：
工程技术1区
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hamzacebi, Coskun;Es, Huseyin Avni

文献摘要

被引文献

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能源需求预测是各国政府、能源部门投资者和其他相关公司的重要问题。虽然有几种预测技术，但选择最合适的技术至关重要。在预测中已被证明是成功的预测技术之一是灰色建模（1，1）。灰色建模（1，1）不需要任何先验知识，可以在输入数据量有限的情况下使用。然而，灰色建模（1，1）的基本形式仍然需要改进，以获得更好的预测。在这项研究中，土耳其的总电能需求预测2013-2025年期间使用优化灰色建模（1，1）预测技术，称为优化灰色建模（1，1）。优化灰色建模（1，1）技术是以直接和迭代的方式实现的。结果表明，优化灰色模型（1，1）的优越性，与文献中的结果相比。该研究的另一个发现是，在预测土耳其的电力消耗方面，直接预测方法比迭代预测方法的预测结果更好。通过使用优化灰色建模的输出，计算了2015年，2020年和2025年的一次能源供应价值（1，1）。(C)2014爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
Energy demand forecasting is an important issue for governments, energy sector investors and other related corporations. Although there are several forecasting techniques, selection of the most appropriate technique is of vital importance. One of the forecasting techniques which has proved successful in prediction is Grey Modeling (1,1). Grey Modeling (1,1) does not need any prior knowledge and it can be used when the amount of input data is limited. However, the basic form of Grey Modeling (1,1) still needs to be improved to obtain better forecasts. In this study, total electric energy demand of Turkey is predicted for the 2013-2025 period by using an optimized Grey Modeling (1,1) forecasting technique called Optimized Grey Modeling (1,1). The Optimized Grey Modeling (1,1) technique is implemented both in direct and iterative manners. The results show the superiority of Optimized Grey Modeling (1,1) when compared with the results from literature. Another finding of the study is that the direct forecasting approach results in better predictions than the iterative forecasting approach in forecasting Turkey's electricity consumption. The supply values of primary energy resources in order to produce electricity have calculated for 2015, 2020 and 2025 by using the outputs of Optimized Grey Modeling (1,1). (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.