Stroke and coronary heart disease: predictive power of standard risk factors into old age--long-term cumulative risk study among men in Gothenburg, Sweden.
Stroke and coronary heart disease: predictive power of standard risk factors into old age--long-term cumulative risk study among men in Gothenburg, Sweden.
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DOI：
10.1093/eurheartj/ehs458
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发表时间：
2013-04
影响因子：
39.3
通讯作者：
Rosengren A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Giang KW;Björck L;Novak M;Lappas G;Wilhelmsen L;Torén K;Rosengren A
这项研究的目的是基于年龄、性别、吸烟状况、收缩压和血清总胆固醇分别检查冠心病(CHD)和中风的短期和长期累积风险。这项初级预防研究包括7174名年龄在47岁至55岁之间的男性，在基线检查(1970-73)时没有冠心病、中风和糖尿病的既往病史，对其进行了35年的跟踪调查。为了评估冠心病和中风的累积影响，所有参与者被分成五个风险组之一，根据他们的风险因素数量定义。在调整年龄和竞争风险后，高危人群的10年风险估计为冠心病18.1%和中风3.2%，35年后分别增加到47.8%和19.6%。基于危险因素的估计在整个冠心病期间表现良好，但在中风方面表现较差。传统危险因素(收缩压、血清总胆固醇和吸烟状况)对卒中冠心病的短期风险(0-10年)和长期风险(0-35年)的预测有很大不同。这表明，基于这些传统危险因素的中年男性累积风险可以有效地用于预测CHD，但不能在相同程度上预测中风。
The aim of this study was to examine the short-term and long-term cumulative risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke separately based on age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total serum cholesterol. The Primary Prevention Study comprising 7174 men aged between 47 and 55 free from a previous history of CHD, stroke, and diabetes at baseline examination (1970–73) was followed up for 35 years. To estimate the cumulative effect of CHD and stroke, all participants were stratified into one of five risk groups, defined by their number of risk factors. The estimated 10-year risk for high-risk individuals when adjusted for age and competing risk was 18.1% for CHD and 3.2% for stroke which increased to 47.8 and 19.6%, respectively, after 35 years. The estimates based on risk factors performed well throughout the period for CHD but less well for stroke. The prediction of traditional risk factors (systolic blood pressure, total serum cholesterol, and smoking status) on short-term risk (0–10 years) and long-term risk (0–35 years) of CHD of stroke differs substantially. This indicates that the cumulative risk in middle-aged men based on these traditional risk factors can effectively be used to predict CHD but not stroke to the same extent.
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影响因子：
39.3
作者：
Bjorck, Lena;Rosengren, Annika;Capewell, Simon
通讯作者：
Capewell, Simon
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Bonita, R;Duncan, J;Beaglehole, R
通讯作者：
Beaglehole, R
影响因子：
8.3
作者：
BOYSEN, G;NYBOE, J;SCHNOHR, P
通讯作者：
SCHNOHR, P
影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Lewington, S;Clarke, R;Collins, R
通讯作者：
Collins, R
影响因子：
8.3
作者：
Harmsen, Per;Lappas, Georg;Wilhelmsen, Lars
通讯作者：
Wilhelmsen, Lars