Perspectives on the causes of exceptionally low 2015 snowpack in the western United States
Perspectives on the causes of exceptionally low 2015 snowpack in the western United States
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DOI：
10.1002/2016gl069965
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发表时间：
2016-10
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
P. Mote;D. Rupp;Sihan Li;D. Sharp;F. Otto;P. Uhe;M. Xiao;D. Lettenmaier;H. Cullen;M. Allen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Mote;D. Rupp;Sihan Li;D. Sharp;F. Otto;P. Uhe;M. Xiao;D. Lettenmaier;H. Cullen;M. Allen
对之前关于2011-2015年加州异常干旱的论文进行了补充，我们对2014年蔓延到俄勒冈州和2015年蔓延到华盛顿的“雪旱”提供了新的视角。2015年，在115°W以西的测量点中，超过80%的积雪经历了创纪录的低降雪量，我们估计，在有问题的平稳假设下，加州积雪的重现期为400-1000年。水文模型支持2015年是有记录以来最严重的结论。利用一个区域气候模式模拟的众包超级集合，我们发现人类影响和海温异常对俄勒冈州和华盛顿州的雪旱风险都有很大的贡献：海温异常的贡献大约是人类影响的两倍。相比之下，SST和人类似乎在加州的雪旱中扮演了较小的角色。在这三个州，人为因素对气温的影响加剧了雪灾。
Augmenting previous papers about the exceptional 2011–2015 California drought, we offer new perspectives on the “snow drought” that extended into Oregon in 2014 and Washington in 2015. Over 80% of measurement sites west of 115°W experienced record low snowpack in 2015, and we estimate a return period of 400–1000 years for California's snowpack under the questionable assumption of stationarity. Hydrologic modeling supports the conclusion that 2015 was the most severe on record by a wide margin. Using a crowd‐sourced superensemble of regional climate model simulations, we show that both human influence and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies contributed strongly to the risk of snow drought in Oregon and Washington: the contribution of SST anomalies was about twice that of human influence. By contrast, SSTs and humans appear to have played a smaller role in creating California's snow drought. In all three states, the anthropogenic effect on temperature exacerbated the snow drought.