Late Holocene climate: Natural or anthropogenic?
Late Holocene climate: Natural or anthropogenic?
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DOI：
10.1002/2015rg000503
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发表时间：
2016-03
影响因子：
25.2
通讯作者：
W. Ruddiman;D. Fuller;J. Kutzbach;P. Tzedakis;J. Kaplan;Erle C. Ellis;S. Vavrus;C. Roberts;
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
W. Ruddiman;D. Fuller;J. Kutzbach;P. Tzedakis;J. Kaplan;Erle C. Ellis;S. Vavrus;C. Roberts;
十多年来，科学家们一直在争论当前间冰期的温暖程度。前工业时代晚期全新世的温暖是自然起源的，是轨道变化的结果，还没有驱动系统进入一个新的冰川状态？还是在很大程度上是人类通过早期农业的温室气体排放干预气候系统的结果？在这里，我们总结了新的证据，通过测试这两个假设推动这场辩论。通过比较晚全新世的反应，发生在以前的间冰期（在第2节），我们评估晚全新世的反应是否看起来不同（因此人为）或相似（因此自然）。这种比较揭示了异常（人为）信号。在第3节中，我们回顾了古生态和考古综合研究，为早期人为温室气体排放提供了地面事实证据。现有数据记录了大量早期人为排放，与人为冰芯异常一致，但需要更多的信息来限制其规模。最后一节比较了冰芯CO2中δ 13 C趋势的自然和人为解释。
For more than a decade, scientists have argued about the warmth of the current interglaciation. Was the warmth of the preindustrial late Holocene natural in origin, the result of orbital changes that had not yet driven the system into a new glacial state? Or was it in considerable degree the result of humans intervening in the climate system through greenhouse gas emissions from early agriculture? Here we summarize new evidence that moves this debate forward by testing both hypotheses. By comparing late Holocene responses to those that occurred during previous interglaciations (in section 2), we assess whether the late Holocene responses look different (and thus anthropogenic) or similar (and thus natural). This comparison reveals anomalous (anthropogenic) signals. In section 3, we review paleoecological and archaeological syntheses that provide ground truth evidence on early anthropogenic releases of greenhouse gases. The available data document large early anthropogenic emissions consistent with the anthropogenic ice core anomalies, but more information is needed to constrain their size. A final section compares natural and anthropogenic interpretations of the δ13C trend in ice core CO2.