Controlling carbon emissions in China
Controlling carbon emissions in China
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DOI：
10.1017/s1355770x99000303
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发表时间：
1999-10
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Richard F. Garbaccio;M. Ho;D. Jorgenson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Richard F. Garbaccio;M. Ho;D. Jorgenson
我们研究了中国利用碳税来减少二氧化碳排放的情况。为此，我们开发了中国经济的动态可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型。除了考虑人口增长、资本积累、技术变革和需求模式变化的影响外，我们还将中国经济的双重性质纳入模型元素，即计划制度和市场制度并存。我们进行了模拟，碳排放量比基准减少了 5%、10% 和 15%。在最初的下降之后，在我们所有的模拟中，GDP 和消费都迅速超过基准水平，因为收入中性的碳税有助于将收入从消费者转移到生产者，然后转化为增加的投资。尽管存在一些警告，但我们发现某种意义上的“双重红利”的潜力，即二氧化碳排放量的减少以及国内生产总值和消费的长期增长。
We examine the use of carbon taxes to reduce emissions of CO2 in China. To do so, we develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chinese economy. In addition to accounting for the effects of population growth, capital accumulation, technological change, and changing patterns of demand, we also incorporate into our model elements of the dual nature of China's economy where both plan and market institutions exist side by side. We conduct simulations in which carbon emissions are reduced by 5, 10, and 15 per cent from our baseline. After initial declines, in all of our simulations GDP and consumption rapidly exceed baseline levels as the revenue neutral carbon tax serves to transfer income from consumers to producers and then into increased investment. Although subject to a number of caveats, we find potential for what is in some sense a 'double dividend', a decrease in emissions of CO2 and a long run increase in GDP and consumption.