A scaling analysis of measles epidemics in a small population
A scaling analysis of measles epidemics in a small population
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DOI：
10.1098/rstb.1996.0150
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发表时间：
1996-12-29
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Anderson, RM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rhodes, CJ;Anderson, RM
我们提出了一个详细的分析模式的麻疹疫情在法罗群岛的小隔离社区。在这一人群中爆发麻疹的特点是感染经常消退，导致在岛屿上没有这种疾病的时间间隔很长。使用流行病的规模和流行病的持续时间的分布分析，我们提出的动态结构中观察到的麻疹病例回报反映了存在一个潜在的缩放机制。因此，这种动态并不像人们通常认为的那样是纯粹随机的。我们使用一个基于格子的流行病模型提供了一个理论估计的标度指数，并表明，传统的房室SEIR模型是无法重现这一结果。本文讨论的方法是通用的，并代表了一种新的方式来考虑任何其他传染病的动态，有频繁的淡出的情况下返回。
We present a detailed analysis of the pattern of measles outbreaks in the small isolated community of the Faroe Islands. Measles outbreaks in this population are characterized by frequent fade-out of infection resulting in long intervals when the disease is absent from the islands. Using an analysis of the distribution of epidemic sizes and epidemic durations we propose that the dynamical structure observed in the measles case returns reflects the existence of an underlying scaling mechanism. Consequently the dynamics are not as purely stochastic as is usually thought for epidemiological systems of this sort. We use a lattice-based epidemic model to provide a theoretical estimate of the scaling exponents and show that a conventional compartmental SEIR model is unable to reproduce this result. The methods discussed in this paper are general and represent a novel way to consider the dynamics of any other communicable disease where there is frequent fade-out in the case returns.