Estimating survival probability using the terrestrial extinction history for the search for extraterrestrial life
Estimating survival probability using the terrestrial extinction history for the search for extraterrestrial life
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-020-69724-2
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发表时间：
2020-07
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
K. Tsumura
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Tsumura
迄今为止已经发现了几颗系外行星，下一步是寻找外星生命。然而，很难估计有生命的系外行星的数量，因为我们唯一的模板是基于地球上的生命。本文介绍了一种新的方法，估计的概率，地球上的生命已经生存从出生到现在的基础上，其陆地灭绝的历史。用对数正态函数有效地模拟了中生代时期灭绝强度的直方图，支持了陆地灭绝是一个随机倍增过程的观点。假设拟合函数是单位时间内灭绝强度的概率密度函数，则估计的地球生命从生命开始到现在的生存概率为。这个值可以成为德雷克方程的一个约束条件，这有助于估计有生命的系外行星的数量。
Several exoplanets have been discovered to date, and the next step is the search for extraterrestrial life. However, it is difficult to estimate the number of life-bearing exoplanets because our only template is based on life on Earth. In this paper, a new approach is introduced to estimate the probability that life on Earth has survived from birth to the present based on its terrestrial extinction history. A histogram of the extinction intensity during the Phanerozoic Eon is modeled effectively with a log-normal function, supporting the idea that terrestrial extinction is a random multiplicative process. Assuming that the fitted function is a probability density function of extinction intensity per unit time, the estimated survival probability of life on Earth isfrom the beginning of life to the present. This value can be a constraint onin the Drake equation, which contributes to estimating the number of life-bearing exoplanets.