Earthquake Disaster Mitigation for Urban Transportation Systems: An Integrated Methodology that Builds on the Kobe and Northridge Experiences
Earthquake Disaster Mitigation for Urban Transportation Systems: An Integrated Methodology that Builds on the Kobe and Northridge Experiences
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城市交通系统的地震减灾：基于神户和北岭经验的综合方法
DOI：
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Sungbin Cho
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Gordon;J. Moore;H. Richardson;M. Shinozuka;Donghwan An;Sungbin Cho
在世界各地，自然灾害每年造成数千人死亡，并造成数十亿美元的损失。更好的分析有可能大规模地挽救生命和资源。经济分析最重要的应用之一是评估拟议的项目和政策措施，通常是效益-成本分析。一个相关但不同的方法涉及区域经济影响分析。效益-成本分析可用于对政策措施的资源利用效率进行排序，而影响分析则提供了这些措施与当地经济当前表现水平偏离的程度。最简单的例子是被广泛报道的乘数分析，其中某些项目（体育场馆、会议中心等）的支持者声称，由于各种连锁反应，年度支出的某些倍数将促进地区经济。我们在这项研究中的主张是，一些可用的经济影响模型在经过适当修改和阐述后，有助于确定大都市地区地震减灾和重建政策的合理评估。
Around the world, natural disasters kill thousands each year and inflict billions of dollars in damage. Better analysis has the potential to save lives and resources on a large scale. One of the most important applications of economic analysis is to the evaluation of proposed projects and policy measures, usually benefit-cost analysis. A related but different approach involves regional economic impact analysis. Whereas benefit-cost analysis can be used to rank policy measures in terms of their efficient use of resources, impact analysis offers a reading of how far these measures deviate the local economy from current performance levels. The simplest examples are the widely reported multiplier analyses wherein proponents of certain projects (sports stadia, convention centers, etc.) claim that some multiple of annual expenditures will enhance the regional economy because of various ripple effects. Our claim in this research is that some available economic impact models when properly modified and elaborated lend themselves to the problem of determining plausible evaluations of earthquake mitigation and reconstruction policies for metropolitan areas.