Multi-scale integrated analysis of societal metabolism: learning from trajectories of development and building robust scenarios
Multi-scale integrated analysis of societal metabolism: learning from trajectories of development and building robust scenarios
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社会代谢的多尺度综合分析：从发展轨迹中学习并构建稳健的场景
DOI：
10.1504/ijgenvi.2005.007993
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发表时间：
2005
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Giampietro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jesus Ramos;M. Giampietro
本文介绍了两个应用的多尺度综合分析社会代谢（MSIASM）的方法。第一个应用程序表明，会计新陈代谢的社会在经济和生物物理方面支持更好地理解机制决定进化轨迹。这是通过分析不同经济部门的平行发展所确定的制约因素，并通过在物质生活水平、人口规模、技术和由此产生的环境影响之间建立联系来实现的。第一个例子的案例研究涉及厄瓜多尔和西班牙的近代经济史。第二个应用程序使用MSIASM进行情景分析。目的是举例说明对未来经济发展情景的质量检查。案例研究是对越南2010年经济发展的一系列假设。
This paper presents two applications of the multi-scale integrated analysis of societal metabolism (MSIASM) approach. The first application shows that accounting the metabolism of a society in both economic and biophysical terms supports a better understanding of mechanisms determining evolutionary trajectories. This is done by analysing the constraints determined by the parallel evolution of different economic sectors and by establishing a link between material standard of living, population size, technology, and the resulting environmental impact. The case study of this first example deals with the recent economic history of Ecuador and Spain. The second application uses MSIASM for scenarios analysis. The goal is to illustrate an example of quality check on future scenarios of economic development. The case study is a set of hypotheses of economic development for Vietnam in the year 2010.