Population growth and intergenerational mobility
Population growth and intergenerational mobility
复制标题
人口增长和代际流动
DOI：
10.1080/13504851.2019.1660759
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Tamotsu Nakamura and Hiroki Aso
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tamotsu Nakamura and Hiroki Aso
本文将人口增长简化为Maoz and Moav（1999）的模型，分析人口增长对代际流动与经济发展关系的影响。如果各收入群体的生育率相同，人口增长就不会影响经济的基本动态。然而，由于生育率的差异，人口增长在表征代际流动性方面起着至关重要的作用。特别是，假设受过教育的人的生育率高于未受过教育的人。受教育者的比例由于生育率的差异而急剧增加。这种急剧增长大大提高了经济中的平均工资，这反过来又增加了教育成本。教育费用的大幅增加促进了向下流动，从而减少了受教育人口的比例。因此，如果生育率差异足够大，流动性就会呈现周期性。相反，如果未受教育者的生育率高于或等于受教育者的生育率，则出现与Maoz和Moav（1999年）相同的动态。
Incorporating population growth into a simplified version of Maoz and Moav (1999), this article analyzes the effect on the relationship between intergenerational mobility and economic development. If the fertility is the same across income groups, population growth does not influence the basic dynamics of the economy. With, however, the fertility difference, population growth plays a crucial role in characterizing the intergenerational mobility. Suppose, in particular, that the fertility of the educated is higher than that of the uneducated. Then the share of the educated increases sharply due to the fertility difference. This sharp increase largely raises the average wage in the economy, which in turn boosts the education cost. The large increase in the education cost facilitates downwards mobility, and hence decreases the population share of the educated. Thus, if the fertility difference is large enough, the mobility exhibits cyclical behaviour. In contrast, if the fertility of the uneducated is higher than or equal to that of the educated, the same dynamics as in Maoz and Moav (1999) appears.