Ensemble forecast of the Kuroshio meandering
Ensemble forecast of the Kuroshio meandering
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DOI：
10.1029/2004jc002426
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发表时间：
2005-10
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Y. Miyazawa;S. Yamane;Xinyu Guo;T. Yamagata
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Y. Miyazawa;S. Yamane;Xinyu Guo;T. Yamagata
[1]针对黑潮弯曲的可预报性，我们做了一个集合预报试验，该方法的应用解决的问题，似乎是第一个全面的尝试，在物理海洋学的社区。通过同化前40天的海面高度异常到海洋环流模式中，成功地预测了1999年11月在日本南部出现的黑潮弯曲现象。实验结果表明，在RMS误差不超过模式气候变化和非同化模拟及持续性的量级的情况下，黑潮曲流位置的预报技巧可达60天。除了一个单一的轨迹预报实验，集合预报进行了使用10个扰动的初始状态产生的育种方法。80天预报的集合成员实现的预测状态分为两类：大的和非大的曲流。结果发现，在初始状态的反气旋涡的强度似乎起着关键作用，在选择的两个状态之一。
[1] Focusing on predictability of the Kuroshio meandering, we have done an ensemble forecast experiment; the application of the method to the problem addressed seems to be the first comprehensive attempt in the community of physical oceanography. By assimilating sea surface height anomaly into an ocean general circulation model in the preceding 40-day period, the observed Kuroshio meandering manifested south of Japan in November 1999 was successfully predicted 2 months before the event. The experiment yields a forecasting skill of the Kuroshio meander position for 60 days in the sense that the RMS error does not exceed the magnitude of the model climatic variation and those obtained from the non-assimilated simulation and persistence. In addition to a single trajectory forecast experiment, ensemble forecasts were conducted using 10 perturbed initial states generated by the breeding method. The predicted states realized as the ensemble members of the 80-day forecast are classified into two categories: large and non-large meander. It is found that the intensity of an anticyclonic eddy in the initial state seems to play a key role in selecting one of the two states.