Migratory birds modeled as critical transport agents for West Nile Virus in North America
Migratory birds modeled as critical transport agents for West Nile Virus in North America
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DOI：
10.1089/153036603765627433
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发表时间：
2003-03-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Andreasen, JK
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Peterson, AT;Vieglais, DA;Andreasen, JK
西尼罗河病毒在西半球的传播速度比预期的要快。我们使用以下一系列技术测试了库蚊和长途候鸟作为病毒传播的潜在媒介。 (1) 使用生态位建模方法 (GARP) 对蚊媒分布进行建模，以生成蚊子传播病毒的景观适宜性地图。 (2) 传播模拟是使用最初为模拟野火传播而开发的算法 (EMBYR) 开发的，从而在纽约市地区播下了病毒的初始存在。 (3) 替代性传播情景被开发为（a）仅以蚊子作为移动媒介（在纽约市传播模拟种子一次，并允许在蚊子适宜性表面上传播），与（b）通过蚊子在局部范围内传播，同时以候鸟作为移动媒介进行长距离定植（在纽约市传播模拟种子一次，并在纽约州东南部鸟类繁殖的冬季目的地采样的地点再次传播模拟种子）。第一种情况（仅蚊子）与观察到的传播模式不一致，而第二种情况（蚊子和候鸟）则非常吻合，这表明观察到的传播模式最好用候鸟作为关键的长途运输媒介来解释；该病毒在通过候鸟传播到的地区，然后通过蚊子进行地方性传播。类似的传播模拟被用来预测未来几年病毒在西半球的蔓延。
West Nile Virus has spread more rapidly than expected in the Western Hemisphere. We tested Culex mosquitoes and long-distance migratory birds as potential agents of spread for the virus, using a series of techniques, as follows. (1) Mosquito vector distributions were modeled using an ecological niche modeling approach (GARP) to produce a map of suitability of the landscape for mosquito transmission of the virus. (2) Simulations of spread were developed with an algorithm originally developed for modeling the spread of wildfires (EMBYR), seeding an initial presence of the virus in the New York City area. (3) Alternative spread scenarios were developed as (a) just mosquitoes as movement agents (spread simulation seeded once at New York City and allowed to spread across the mosquito suitability surface), versus (b) spread via mosquitoes on local scales in tandem with long-distance colonization with migratory birds as movement agents (spread simulation seeded once at New York City, and again at sites sampled from the winter destinations of birds breeding in southeastern New York State). The first scenario (mosquitoes only) did not coincide with observed patterns of spread, whereas the second (mosquitoes and migratory birds) coincided closely, suggesting that observed patterns of spread are best explained with migratory birds as critical long-distance transport agents; the virus, in regions to which it is transported by migratory birds, then is transmitted enzootically via mosquitoes. Similar simulations of spread were used to predict extensions of the virus in the Western Hemisphere in coming years.