The Complex Relationship between Forecast Skill and Forecast Value: A Real-World Analysis
The Complex Relationship between Forecast Skill and Forecast Value: A Real-World Analysis
复制标题
预测技巧和预测价值之间的复杂关系：现实世界分析
作者：
Paul Roebber;L. Bosart
摘要对于常规的温度和降水预报，人类预报员在数值统计指导方面的相对技能优势很小（并且正在减少）。由于预测技能和这些预测的价值之间的关系很复杂，作者在一系列真实的用户环境中研究了它们的价值。结果发现，虽然在大多数情况下，气象信息具有相当大的价值，用户，人工干预，使这些预测（由国家气象局预测测量），一般导致最小的收益，超出了这是通过直接使用数值统计的指导。一个重要的例外是在冬季高峰期天然气公司使用气象信息;在这种情况下，人为干预的价值相当大。国家气象局预报中的信息独立于数字统计数据中的信息。
Abstract For routine forecasts of temperature and precipitation, the relative skill advantage of human forecasters with respect to the numerical–statistical guidance is small (and diminishing). Since the relationship between forecast skill and the value of those forecasts is complex, the authors have examined their value across a range of real-world user contexts. It is found that although in most cases the meteorological information possessed considerable value to the users, human intervention in making those forecasts (as measured by National Weather Service forecasts) has generally led to minimal gains in value beyond that which is obtainable through direct use of numerical–statistical guidance. An important exception is the use of meteorological information by gas utilities during peak wintertime periods; in those circumstances, the value of human intervention was considerable. The presence of information in the National Weather Service forecasts independent of that contained in the numerical–statisti...